One thing we’ve learned about the Chicago Bears over the past two years is never to assume anything. They operate according to their own internal plans, not everybody else’s. This is how people end up shocked when they take two linebackers in free agency and an offensive tackle with their 1st round pick. Experts hated both decisions at the time. Yet both ended up working out pretty well for the team. That is why it is difficult to trust what everybody is “hearing” about GM Ryan Poles’ plans going into March and April.
So, to spice things up, I decided to take a complete inventory of what we know about the man, his history, and the Bears’ needs this off-season. Then, I delivered a few bold predictions about what they will do. This writer accepts that at least one of them will trigger you.
Expect the Chicago Bears to hatch at least one shocker.
Sign Justin Madubuike
One thing has remained true about the Bears’ defense. They still don’t have that definitive interior pass rusher to help the system thrive. Gervon Dexter made good strides last season, but he isn’t at that level yet. People keep talking about Chris Jones, but the true big fish of this year is Madubuike. He’s 26 years old and coming off a season with 13 sacks as an interior pass rusher for the Baltimore Ravens. The guy is exactly the sort of disruptor Matt Eberflus would want inside to complement Montez Sweat. Projections say securing him as a free agent will cost around $23 million per year. The Bears have over $78 million in cap space. This feels like an easy decision from their perspective.
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Tag and trade Jaylon Johnson
This probably won’t be a popular decision among Chicago Bears fans. Still, think about it. Johnson is coming off a Pro Bowl season. He had four interceptions, dropped at least four others, and is still only 24 years old. Teams were reluctant to give up a 1st round pick for him midway through last year. This time around, knowing what he morphed into, they will likely be far more willing to pay that price. Poles could secure a third 1st round pick, avoid paying Johnson $20+ million per year, and still have a strong young group at cornerback led by Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stevenson, and Terell Smith. He has already proven he knows how to find talent at that position. Look for teams like Philadelphia and San Francisco to be interested.
Trade the #1 pick again
Peter King brought this up in his final ever column, so he’s clearly hearing whispers of something. Everybody thinks the Bears will stay at #1 and take Caleb Williams. That still remains likely, but it’s important to remember who is in charge. Poles is a big believer in stockpiling draft capital. Nobody knows for sure how high he is on Williams. There is a reasonable chance multiple teams have already come forward with large offers for that pick. If he feels he can get something ridiculous for the spot, he is not the type of person to fear moving down. Poles already proved last year he can make the most of such a move. Trading down again could set his team up for years to come. So what about the quarterback? I’m glad you asked!
Select J.J. McCarthy as the new quarterback
Oh boy, this will get some people fired up. A lot of evaluators have the Michigan standout as the fourth-best QB in the class and quite far below Williams and Drake Maye. Why would the Bears do this? For one, McCarthy is more talented than he gets credit for. He’s 6’3, has good mobility, an above-average arm, and consistent accuracy. His best traits are his poise, moxie, and unshakable confidence in high-pressure situations. He was 27-1 as a starter, winning a national championship. Teammates and coaches alike rave about his leadership. He’s also a local kind, hailing from La Grange Park. Poles said he needed to find somebody who could handle the pressure of playing in Chicago. McCarthy feels like the perfect choice, if not the flashy one.
Put the Bong down dude, you’re hitting way too hard!!
Well Arnie it sure sounds like that’s exactly what’s happening after Poles presser today. Thanks for the discussion.
@jim Jones The reason why that works like you are describing is because you spread a signing bonus out over the length of the contract. With a franchise tag, there is no signing bonus, first of all, but more importantly, doing a multi-year deal only pulls the annual cost down if you can 1) get the player to agree to accept less than the franchise tag amount (not likely in this case), or 2) You structure the deal with a bigger chunk as a signing bonus to spread it out over multiple years. #2 only works if you are successful… Read more »
Replacing Fields with McCarthy is literally the worst idea I have ever heard.
@Arnie when you sign someone you can shift part of their salary to a bonus lowering the cap number. We can probably have a cap number south of $16 million if we don’t tag him. It’s 100% more valuable to not tag. That’s why they always say tagging is “100% guaranteed”. Most teams start creating bonuses to clear up cap space.