Sunday, May 19, 2024

Analytics Expert Weighs In On Chicago Bears Trade Down Or Not Debate

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The Chicago Bears are two games away from holding the #2 pick in the 2023 draft. It would be the highest they’ve selected since 2017, and that was after a trade up. Many fans wonder if the opposite may happen this time around. GM Ryan Poles is in a favorable position. He already has a young quarterback that is coming into his own. Justin Fields looks capable of greatness. The same can’t be said of the rest of the roster. This team needs loads of help. One high pick might not be enough to solve the problem. That is why many hope Poles will look to trade down.

Others believe the risk isn’t worth it. Don’t overthink the situation. Identify the best player available and take them. The 2023 class appears to have some elite-tier talents that will be there at #2, especially on the defensive side. Take a pass rusher or a defensive tackle to upgrade the Bears’ weak defensive line and be happy. Everybody has their opinion on this debate. Adam Rank of NFL Network decided to ask a colleague in Cynthia Frelund. She is an analytics specialist. Numbers are her thing. So it was interesting to hear her perspective on what the Bears should do on Rank’s The Sick Podcast.

The Chicago Bears trading down will depend on many variables.

It starts with Poles and how he feels about the top prospects available. If he falls in love with Will Anderson or Jalen Carter, he won’t even entertain the idea. He’ll stay put and pick one of them. However, the window is open for a move if he’s not 100% all in. Then it becomes a matter of two things: the intrigue of the draft’s top quarterbacks and how many teams are willing to move up for one of them. Most experts agree there are three QBs likely to go in the top 10: Bryce Young (Alabama), C.J. Stroud (Ohio State), and Will Levis (Kentucky).

How they perform in the pre-draft process during the combine, pro days, and interviews will heavily influence where they go when the clock starts in April. If the QB-needy teams fall in love with any of them, that instantly increases the odds Poles can fleece one of them for a large haul of picks. Indianapolis (5th), Atlanta (6th), Carolina (8th), Las Vegas (9th), Tennessee (13th), and New York (15th) are all within striking distance.

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The Chicago Bears control this scenario over these next two games. If they win either one, their draft position will plummet and trading down becomes less lucrative. So answering this question becomes almost impossible until we have greater clarity.

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Gator Joe
Jan 3, 2023 9:26 am

Hmm. Either use the pick on a generational defender or trade down. Amazing insight.

barry
barry
Jan 1, 2023 1:41 am

eye candy? what are you looking at bill?

Thom Cameron
Thom Cameron
Dec 31, 2022 1:05 pm

I can not even imagine how much NY at 15th would have to offer. I’m laughing that it could even be theorised. ( I know I just did it)

BILL KOWALSKI
BILL KOWALSKI
Dec 31, 2022 11:25 am

OMG! WHAT A BABBLING NON-SENSICAL ANSWER FROM THE ANALYTICS GURU (NOT!) IT’S LAUGHABLE THAT THIS WOMAN HAS ANY AIR TIME AT ALL…ARE YOU SERIOUS?! LET’S DO A FACT CHECK ON HER PREDICTIONS AND SEE JUST HOW BAD HER PREDICTIONS ARE!!

NOT BAD EYE CANDY THOUGH…

David
Dec 31, 2022 9:56 am

I think you are right regarding Carr trade but at the same time the number 1 or 2 pick is way too rich for him. If a team deals a pick that high for Carr they are crazy. Therfore i don’t think the lotto teams would be involved unless it’s for like a second rounder.

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