Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson isn’t just a competitor. He is essentially approaching his job like a military general. Everyone else is the enemy. He doesn’t care if the other teams have lots of good, likable people. They are all an obstacle to his ultimate goal. That is winning a championship. It is probably why some across the NFL don’t like him. They see him as brash and antagonistic. That suits Johnson just fine. He doesn’t care if he’s liked. He didn’t take the Bears job to become popular. His focus is on dominating the opposition and winning games.
That means he will seize every opportunity he can to rev up his players and motivate them. Even the slightest bit of disrespect is useful in his mind. So you can imagine how he’ll feel when he sees ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) projections for the 2026 season. Regarding Super Bowl contenders, the Bears failed to crack the top five despite their strong finish last season. In fact, they’re not even in the top 16. Needless to say, the analytics guys see a major dip coming for Chicago.
Ben Johnson will love the reasoning for this.
Seth Walder broke down why he’s not buying the Bears later in the article. It boils down to how inefficient Caleb Williams was last season and the defense’s overreliance on turnovers to be effective. Unless those two issues are resolved, there is no way this team will reach a Super Bowl. Not only that, but he thinks the Bears will have a hard time even making the playoffs. Part of that is the metrics, but also that they’re about to play a much tougher schedule than they did last season.
“Chicago broke through last season, going 11-6 to win the NFC North and adding its first playoff win in 15 years. But the numbers suggest the Bears overachieved. They ranked seventh and 19th in offensive and defensive EPA per play, respectively, but that defensive number was entirely reliant on turnovers. Chicago’s defense ranked 30th on non-turnover plays. Plus, while quarterback Caleb Williams delivered repeated jaw-dropping plays, he also ranked only 16th in QBR.
The Bears might show growth in 2026 and become the Super Bowl contender their fans hope for them to be. But the FPI does not see that as a likelihood because of the combination of last season’s metrics and the first-place schedule they’ll face in 2026. Chicago is a light underdog to make the playoffs (46.5%) and has only a 19.4% chance to win the NFC North — roughly half of the Lions’ chances.”
Mentioning the Lions is almost certain to go over well with Ben Johnson. The Bears’ head coach was already stewing from last season after his former team swept him in the season series. To hear they are now the heavy favorites to unseat him from the division crown is only pouring fuel on the flames.
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Great head coaches find doubters wherever possible.
One thing about Bill Belichick that made him a master of that New England Patriots dynasty was his constant ability to fuel an “us against the world” mentality. This came even during the peak years. Bill Walsh was also great at it during his run in San Francisco. Ben Johnson has shown signs of being the same. He always finds a way to make his players feel disrespected. Last year was easy since pretty much everyone doubted the Bears would ever be a playoff contender. This time around might have proven trickier.
ESPN just served some up on a silver platter. It’s one thing to consider the Bears a dark horse for the Super Bowl, but to give them no shot? Not only that, but they’re also a mortal lock to not even make the playoffs. There is no way in hell Johnson will let something like that slip by without making full use of it. Don’t be shocked if the Bears come out early this season feeling like they have something to prove. Because apparently, in the eyes of the national public, they still do.
