Call me a sucker for falling for spring training velocity numbers, but I want to believe so badly in a resurgent 2026 season by Chicago Cubs starter Shōta Imanaga. Kind of a big flip flop here for me because I had serious doubts about the left-hander after his disappointing end to the 2025 season, when the Cubs pretty much benched him in Game 5 of the NLDS. But now? Buy all the Imanaga stock as you can.
Sometimes we look past injuries because players return in the season and are seemingly healthy because they remain active. That was the case for Imanaga, who was sidelined for six weeks from early May until late June in 2025, because of a hamstring injury. He came back and pitched extremely well against the St. Louis Cardinals, but it kind of went downhill after that.
Imanaga finished the 2025 season with a 3.73 ERA in 25 starts and while that obviously isn’t bad his last 12 starts yielded a 5.17 ERA in 69.2 innings. The veteran lefty was getting crushed as opponents clobbered 20 home runs against Imanaga from July 25 through the end of the regular season and then in the postseason Imanaga gave up three more home runs in 6.2 innings.
His velocity went down and although the difference might look minimal on paper, 91.9 mph in 2024 to 90.8 mph in 2025, it was huge on the mound for Imanaga. I mean, we saw how good he was during his first MLB season and it wasn’t like Imanaga was blowing hitters away with triple digits. All he needed was 92-93 mph and good location with his fastball coupled with a nasty splitter.
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And that’s why I’m a believer again. We know Imanaga can be good in this league and we can’t ignore that a hamstring injury may have ultimately derailed his 2025 season. Cubs manager Craig Counsell discussed how the leg injury caused mechanical flaws for Imanaga last year, which led to lower velocity.
To his credit Imanaga didn’t sit by and dwell on his disappointing second half. He trained in the offseason to ensure his velocity was back up and in his spring training debut Imanaga looked like the All-Star pitcher that he was in 2024.
That strikeout came on a 94 mph fastball from Imanaga. In 2025, Imanaga’s highest velocity was 93.7 mph and it came in his first start of the year against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Japan.
Sure, Imanaga was probably a little amped up to get back out there, but he threw 24 fastballs against the San Diego Padres on Tuesday and the left-hander averaged 93 mph. That’s a lovely development for him and the Cubs.
All-in on Shōta Imanaga in 2026.
