People have been trying to pinpoint who Caleb Williams is as a quarterback for two years. Or, more accurately, they’re trying to assess who he will become. That is why there have been so many pro comparisons thrown around. Most started with his idol, former Green Bay Packers legend Aaron Rodgers. Williams even admitted he modeled his game after the future Hall of Famer. However, based on how things have progressed for the Chicago Bears quarterback in the past year, both on and off the field, many see him as following a similar trajectory to Josh Allen.

Prominent Bears expert Kyle Morris, a respected analytics expert, doesn’t agree. He crunched the numbers and Allen isn’t the one who mirrors Williams the closest. That is none other than former All-Pro Andrew Luck. The retired Indianapolis Colts legend had a strikingly similar second season in 2013 to Williams’ 2025. It offers plenty of proof that the debate for the latter’s completion percentage is pointless, and that much bigger things are ahead for the young Bears quarterback.

Caleb Williams is right on the Luck trajectory.

“If we want to find the closest comp to Caleb Williams at this stage in his development the answer is not to sort the 2025 leaderboard by completion % and make nonsensical comparisons to JJ McCarthy. It’s to ask when was the last time we saw a young, exceptionally-talented quarterback produce like a significantly above-average passer despite some accuracy issues in an offense that asked him to handle significant dropback pass volume from under center and without a ton of “easy” throws that have come to dominate most schemes since. The answer is 2013 Andrew Luck.

The comparison is actually startling. While Williams was a bit more productive overall in terms of ANY/A I’m going to give Luck a little credit here and note he was dealing with a much worse offensive line than Caleb this year. Otherwise the results are quite similar. Both quarterbacks attempted roughly 31% of their pass attempts from under center, both threw 10+ yards down the field on roughly 35% of their pass attempts. Both threw 20+ touchdowns and had 3,800+ passing yards with fewer than 10 interceptions. PFF graded the two remarkably similar and gave them the exact same Big Time Throw rate and similar Turnover Worthy Play rates. Their adjusted completion % was quite close as well. We’ve seen this exact movie before.”

Williams now has two big advantages over Luck.

The biggest problems that plagued the former Colts quarterback were poor pass protection and inconsistent offensive structure. Indianapolis allowed 174 sacks in 86 games. The ferocious beatings he took were the primary catalyst for his retirement in 2019. Luck also had four different offensive coordinators in his career. Chicago has already addressed both of these problems. After Williams took 68 sacks as a rookie, the Bears did a massive overhaul of the offensive line last offseason, adding Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, and Drew Dalman. Williams took 24 sacks in 2025. On top of that, they hired Ben Johnson as the head coach. He will also serve as the offensive coordinator, meaning Williams will play in the same offensive system every year.

This means the Bears quarterback has a chance to achieve what Luck did, but over a longer period. Remember, the Colts legend cracked 4,000 yards four times and 30 touchdowns three times in just six seasons. If he’d stayed healthy, he would probably be in Hall of Fame conversations by now. If this trend holds with Caleb Williams, that is who the Bears will have for at least the next decade. It is crazy to think what the organization could accomplish if that is the case.

So why isn’t Williams getting more credit?

Let’s not gloss over the fact that he is the first quarterback in Bears history to account for over 4,000 total yards and 30 touchdowns in a season. He led them to the playoffs and won a playoff game. One would think that would at least get him some acknowledgement from the national media. Sure, they give him his props for the many insane plays he made, but it still feels like they don’t view him as a top quarterback. He didn’t even get a nod to the Pro Bowl. If you think that means nothing, check this out. Here is every QB in the Super Bowl era who posted similar numbers to Williams in their second season in the NFL, including Luck.

That’s right. Of the six other quarterbacks listed, all of them made the Pro Bowl that respective year. The only one who didn’t was Caleb Williams. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield, who didn’t make the playoffs and had fewer yards and touchdowns, got the nod instead. Why? The simplest answer is that he has a better public image. It is time to address the elephant in the room. One inescapable fact is that Williams, for all his obvious ability, is not overly popular with the national media.

There are plenty of reasons that go into this.

From a young age, Williams was surrounded by hype and expectations. As he kept living up to them, it became easier for many to become jealous of his success. He has an undeniable sense of self-confidence. It can often be misinterpreted as arrogance. People often prefer their quarterbacks humble to a fault. Then you have his unique personality. This is a quarterback who willingly paints his nails before games. Older generations identify that as effeminate and have no place in a man’s game like football. Then you add how he cried in his mother’s arms on national TV after a tough loss to Utah, and that only made it worse.

Last but not least, you had the highly controversial column from Tyler Dunne of Go Long, accusing Williams of being a selfish player who didn’t listen to coaches, didn’t work hard, and thought he knew best. All of this was hanging over the quarterback’s head at the start of last season, making him one of the more hated players at the position. Even as he led the Bears to seven 4th quarter comebacks and made magic every week, those same people who got the wrong impression refused to back off their initial stance.

That is why Williams doesn’t receive Pro Bowl recognition and isn’t considered a top-10 quarterback. Don’t forget, Luck was already there by the end of 2013. Never forget that public image goes a long way in determining when, or even if, a quarterback receives the credit he deserves.

When Ben Johnson took over as the Chicago Bears‘ head coach in 2025, everybody knew changes were coming. It was only a question of how deep they’d go. The answer was that most of the entire staff was replaced, save for one or two minor assistants. Perhaps the most interesting decision by Johnson was to retain most of the team’s strength and conditioning and training staff. The only minor tweak made was promoting Pierre Ngo to head strength coach. Some are now wondering if that might’ve been a mistake, including Bears general manager Ryan Poles.

He admitted during a recent press conference that the team discussed solutions to the brutal series of injuries last year. Many of them were soft-tissue injuries, leading to speculation that the trainer and strength staff did a poor job of preparing guys for the rigors of the season. Poles admitted that a somewhat wonky schedule played a part, as did a drastic change in how Johnson conducted practices compared to Matt Eberflus. However, it’s clear the team is contemplating a shakeup in those areas.

Ryan Poles must find someone who is on Johnson’s wavelength.

It is pretty clear the training and strength staffs were not prepared for the head coach’s new approach to practice and preparation. Johnson was notorious for pushing players hard. Most of the coaches, like Ngo and Andre Tucker, worked under Eberflus and Matt Nagy. Those coaches weren’t known for conducting brutal practices. That is not to say they were too soft on guys, but it’s apparent that Johnson is a different animal. If there is a disconnect between trainers and coaches, then lots of injuries tend to follow.

The obvious question is, will Johnson make changes? It wouldn’t be the first time. Lovie Smith kept Dick Jauron’s training staff around in 2004 to maintain some continuity. However, the Bears were slammed by injuries that season, many of the soft-tissue variety. So, in early 2005, he fired the staff and brought in an expert from Buffalo, Rusty Jones. He drastically cut down on injuries that season, and the Bears went 11-5 and won the NFC North title. If you’re not sure a strength staff can handle what they’re being asked, find someone who will.

Whether the Bears follow through on it remains uncertain. Ryan Poles and the coaches likely won’t make a decision until after the draft in April.

Tyson Bagent has become a hot commodity in NFL circles this offseason. With the prospect of weak free agent and draft classes this year, teams are looking to the trade market for answers. The Chicago Bears‘ backup has spent three years learning on the sideline. He went 2-2 as a starter in his rookie season of 2023. Last year, he learned under the guidance of Bears head coach Ben Johnson, one of the league’s premier offensive minds. He is also locked into a highly affordable contract that would give any team control for two more years. At 25, he is entering his prime. You can start to see the allure.

The problem for those teams is that the Bears aren’t inclined to make a deal. They love Bagent. He’s a terrific locker room guy, very smart, and they believe he’s more talented than his job title would suggest. Johnson himself said he believes Bagent is one of the 32 best quarterbacks in the NFL. In other words, he should be a starter. The Bears feel like they know what they have and aren’t keen on letting it go. That would explain the price tag they placed on him, according to Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune.

The Bears let it be known they’ll take calls on Bagent, whom Johnson holds in high regard. It probably would take a second-round pick (or two picks equaling that value) to make it worthwhile for the Bears. The New York Jets are in the market for a starter and could be looking to go the budget route after sinking $30 million guaranteed into Justin Fields. I’m not sure a team would offer a Round 2 pick for Bagent. It’s worth noting the Bears have had meetings with agents representing some No. 2-type quarterbacks, so they’re putting contingency plans in place.

The Bears have history on their side with that Tyson Bagent price.

A 2nd round pick sounds like a lot, and it is. However, quarterbacks are the premium commodity in today’s NFL. We’ve known from watching every year that several “starters” around the league should be backups. If that is the case, it makes sense that some of the backups should be starters. That is why recent history shows such players going for a high price. Since 2000, there have been six trades involving a backup being acquired to become the clear starter for a new team. In every case, the original team received at least a 2nd round pick in total value.

Player	Year	From  To	Compensation
Jimmy Garoppolo	2017	Patriots to 49ers	2018 2nd-round pick
Kevin Kolb	2011	Eagles to Cardinals	2nd-round pick and CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Matt Cassel	2009	Patriots to Chiefs	2nd-round pick (included LB Mike Vrabel)
Matt Schaub	2007	Falcons to Texans	Two 2nd-round picks and a 1st-round swap
A.J. Feeley	2004	Eagles to Dolphins	2005 2nd-round pick
Matt Hasselbeck	2001	Packers to Seahawks	1st-round pick swap and a 3rd-round pick

This also isn’t a tactic that is a constant failure. Hasselbeck and Garoppolo went to a Super Bowl. Schaub became a two-time Pro Bowler. Cassel won a division title. There have been more hits than misses in these cases, which the Bears can also point to as another reason they’re justified in asking for a 2nd rounder. In truth, they have the leverage. Bagent is secured under contract and poses no danger to their cap. They love having him, and he loves being there. That means there is no angle of attack for other teams. Either they pay up, or solve their QB problem elsewhere.

The offseason landscape is on the Bears’ side, too.

As stated above, the incoming 2026 draft class is light on options. Only one quarterback (Fernando Mendoza) is considered a ready-made NFL starter, and he’s going #1 overall. Everybody else in the class is a maybe. Free agency isn’t much better. Aaron Rodgers is in his 40s and nearing retirement. The same for Joe Flacco. Daniel Jones tore his Achilles last season. Malik Willis is a possibility, but he will cost a ton of money ($30 million per year). Kyler Murray will probably be traded. So you start to see why the Bears are in a favorable position.

Tyson Bagent is a young quarterback on a cheap contract. Such things are valuable in this league. The problem for other teams is that Chicago isn’t run by dummies anymore. Poles and Johnson know what they have. Neither is in danger of being fired, so desperation isn’t a factor. Keeping Bagent is something they’re more than fine with, which means another team must make them change their minds. Only an aggressive trade package will do it, and a 2nd round pick is fair.

After watching last season, it’s become pretty clear the Chicago Bears found themselves a quarterback. Caleb Williams wasn’t perfect, but he was very good for much of the season. His seven 4th quarter comebacks are a franchise record, and he also broke Erik Kramer’s long-standing single-season passing mark with 3,942 yards. Add 30 total touchdowns, and you get an idea of how much Williams accomplished. One would think quarterbacks would be the last thing on the Bears’ minds going into the 2026 pre-draft process.

That would be wrong.

News from the scouting combine in Indianapolis is that the Bears have met with not one but two quarterbacks for interviews. The first was Cole Payton from North Dakota State.

Payton started one season for the Biston, throwing for 2,719 yards, 16 touchdowns, and just four interceptions. He also added 380 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground. The other name involved was Behren Morton of Texas Tech. Unlike Payton, he started four seasons, collecting 8,989 yards, 71 touchdowns, and 28 interceptions.

The Chicago Bears’ interest in both QBs isn’t hard to see.

Payton is a dual-threat player, much like Williams, has good size, and demonstrates touch and accuracy on his throws. His arm strength is decent but not special, and his mechanics are a sloppy mess. That isn’t a surprise given his lack of experience. He’s surprisingly sharp at reading the field and identifies blitzes quickly. He lacks decisiveness, which would be a problem at the pro level. Fans will be reminded of Jalen Hurts a lot. That said, the Eagles’ quarterback was a battle-tested veteran when drafted. Payton needs time to develop.

For Morton, it’s more about health and improvement as a timing passer. He knows how to operate in the pocket, demonstrating good feet to avoid pressure, and will keep his eyes down the field. His accuracy is good, and he’s tough as nails. Injuries have hampered him a lot in college, and his defensive identification skills aren’t the best. Still, he makes quick decisions and puts the ball where it needs to be. He has the makings of a reliable backup who can get you through a three-game stretch in a pinch.

It’s clear why the Bears are doing this.

Trade buzz has been building over the past couple of weeks around Tyson Bagent. Chicago’s primary backup quarterback for the past three years has steadily built a reputation in league circles. Certain coaches are intrigued by his potential after watching him in the preseason and listening to him in interviews. Bears head coach Ben Johnson said he believes Bagent is one of the 32 best quarterbacks in the league, meaning he should probably be a starter right now. If other teams reach the same conclusion, they are likely to make overtures to the Bears for his services.

If the team gets an offer they can’t refuse, Bagent will be gone. Case Keenum is also a free agent. That means the Chicago Bears wouldn’t have a backup quarterback. At that point, they’d have to retool the position behind Caleb Williams. Payton and Morton are two possible options they might consider on day three of the draft. They could be someone Johnson can develop to execute his offense if Williams ever went down, and maybe, with a little luck, end up in the same situation Bagent is.

The Chicago Bears haven’t picked in the 20s of the 1st round since 2013, when they selected 20th overall. It is somewhat unfamiliar territory for this new regime. Bears general manager Ryan Poles has enjoyed a steady stream of top 10 picks over the past three years, assembling a promising young core of Darnell Wright, Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, and Colston Loveland. This year will be more challenging. Several more players will be picked before the Bears go on the board. Many of them will be guys the team really wants. It will come down to how much the team trusts its evaluation ability.

However, some around the league aren’t so certain it will play out that way. Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune spoke with multiple executives, asking what they think the Bears might do. In their estimation, sticking and picking might not be Chicago’s first choice. They believe a strong possibility exists that Poles tries to trade down.

Said a college scouting director: “Instead of having to have seven guys on the board that you would take, now you have to have 15 or 25 that you’d like there. You get to a point where you’re like, ‘We don’t have 25 players we like in the first round.’ Then you start thinking about moving back, get some value.”…

The first thing an assistant general manager mentioned was looking to trade down.

“We would try to go back,” he said, “just because if you’re at 25, yes, you like the fifth-year option if you’re staying in the first round, but if I can get an extra third- or fourth-round pick to go from 25 to 33, there’s a chance I get the same player, right? At that point (No. 25), it’s starting to get to where across the league, boards are looking different. I’ve got this guy a little bit higher and you had him a little lower.

“Then you’re getting to the point, too, where it’s about team needs or targeted players, maybe like the Bears picking Luther Burden last year. Whatever the case may be. The top 10? We’ve all got those same players. When it gets to the back of Round 1, you need to be a little open to navigation…”

The Chicago Bears have somebody familiar with this approach.

Poles has already done it twice in his GM stint. He traded down from #1 overall to #9 in 2023, then again from #9 to #10. That doesn’t include the several other instances over the past four years where Poles moved down. He isn’t afraid to manipulate the board. Would he consider dropping out of the 1st round entirely? It has happened quite a lot over the past decade. In fact, Poles was part of one of the most impactful such trades in NFL history when Kansas City did it in 2016.

Trading down carries hazards. There is a dangerous risk that you end up not landing any good players at all. However, in a class that is light on blue-chip talent, the sensible move might be to increase your inventory of picks, using quantity over quality to find some good players. Much depends on how wide a gap the Bears believe there will be between someone selected 25th and someone selected, say, 35th. If it’s negligible and they’re getting calls from teams wanting to jump into the back end of the 1st round, it is a strategy that can work.

Finding a trade partner will be the tricky part.

If you look back at the history of teams coming back into the 1st round, it’s often for one of two things: a quarterback or an offensive playmaker. You saw the New York Giants do it for Jaxson Dart last year. There is a distinct possibility that somebody at the top of the 2nd round who didn’t take a quarterback will want to come up to get somebody they covet. The Jets, Cardinals, Browns, and Dolphins all have major question marks at quarterback. All pick high in the 2nd round.

Let’s also not forget the Chicago Bears have seven picks in this draft. Poles has typically preferred to operate with more. Unless there is a can’t-miss player he and the coaches must have at #25, moving down is the logical move. This draft is known more for its depth than its star power. Adding extra selections gives them more opportunities to find starters. One good or even great player at #25 may not solve all of their issues. If they find willing partners, this scenario is an easy sell.