Lucas Giolito was the crown jewel of the trade that sent Adam Eaton to the Nationals. He is expected to be the White Sox future ace and help lead the team’s rotation in the near future.
It’s easy to get excited about Giolito by looking at his past accomplishments. He struggled during his first taste at the MLB level, pitching to a 6.75 ERA, but the former National was downright dominate during his time in the minors.
Over 75 games and 369 innings, Giolito amassed a 25-15 record with a 2.73 ERA and a 397/123 K/BB ratio.
Going into the 2017 season MLB Pipeline ranked Giolito as the White Sox second best prospect and the 11th best prospect in baseball. Fans have begun salivating over the idea of Giolito-lead rotation featuring pitchers such as Carlos Rodon, Reynaldo Lopez and Michael Kopech.
While in theory that sounds like a World Series winning rotation, Giolito hasn’t lived up to expectations this Spring Training. In four games and 9.2 innings, Giolito has pitched to a 2-1 record with a 5.59 ERA and a 6/4 K/BB ratio.
What may be worrisome is his dwindling velocity. After sitting in the mid to upper 90s for his career, Giolito has been consistently in the low 90s, topping out at 93 for most of Spring Training.
Of course Giolito is just 22 years old with only six games of major league experience. Many expect him to right his woes and become the dominant pitcher everyone expected.
However some feel that Giolito’s Spring Training is a much bigger program and that his prospect luster has waned.
ESPN’s Jerry Crasnik recently wrote an article detailing Giolito’s rough offseason and how he is viewed in the baseball community. Inside the article he had a quote from a National League scout that said:
“I think he will be a bullpen guy down the line, kind of like a Jon Rauch or Luke Hochevar. He got hyped up a lot and Washington found out later. Usually, the drafting team is the last to know.”
Jon Rauch and Luke Hochevar may be recognizable names to baseball’s older fans. But digging deeper into each pitcher proves just how bad this comparison could be for the White Sox top prospect.
Jon Rauch
Rauch actually started his career with the White Sox after being drafted in the third round of the 1999 MLB Draft. He went on to spend time with the Expos/Nationals, Twins, Diamondbacks, Mets, Marlins and Blue Jays.
In 556 career games and 595 innings Rauch holds a 43-40 record with a 3.90 ERA and a 475/179 K/BB ratio.
While those stats are more mediocre than awful, following in Rauch’s steps would be a terrible career trajectory for Giolito.
Rauch was never voted to an All Star Game, only had five postseason appearances, and pitched to a sub 3.00 ERA once in his career. That season he only appeared in 11 games.
Rauch was never a dominant reliever by any stretch of the means. He was a middle reliever that never did anything great. Giolito has the tools to be great, which is the opposite of what Jon Rauch’s career was.
Luke Hochevar
Hochevar’s name may ring a bell with more modern day MLB fans. Kansas City made him the first overall pick in the 2006 MLB Draft. He has spent his entire career with the Royals.
In his nine year career Hochevar has appeared in 279 games and 929.1 innings. He holds a career 46-65 record with a 4.98 ERA and a 702/299 K/BB ratio.
Hochevar actually had a breakout season in 2013 holding a 5-2 record and a 1.92 ERA. But the year prior he let up a league leading 118 earned runners. Outside of 2013 Hochevar hasn’t pitched to a sub 3.00 ERA when appearing in atleast 10 games.
Hochevar has never been voted to an All Star Game and while he won the World Series with the Royals in 2015, he only has nine postseason appearances. The Royals reliever has just three saves to his name.
Hochevar is a draft bust who never lived up to the hype. Going 16th overall in 2012, Giolito would fall into the same scenario if he follows Hochevar’s trajectory.
Overall
Giolito ending up in the bullpen in any capacity would mean that he didn’t live up to expectations. The White Sox traded for him to be their next ace, if he ends up in the bullpen then they clearly overvalued him.
However if Giolito ends up in the bullpen in a setup or closer role than that’s a different story. If he helps form a dominant back end of the bullpen with Zack Burdi then the White Sox should be in decent shape. The White Sox don’t want him in the bullpen, but if he becomes an elite reliever then that’s where he belongs.
If he becomes Jon Rauch or Luke Hochevar then he is nothing more than an average middle reliever at best. Outside of a good year here and then Rauch and Hochevar did nothing to separate them from the pack.
If Giolito becomes a mediocre reliever then the Nationals got an absolute steal in Adam Eaton.
Overall though, it’s far too early to tell what Giolito’s long term position is. Many expect him to remain in the rotation and be the dominant ace the White Sox traded for. Others, and this scout specifically, think he belongs in the bullpen.
If one thing is for certain, the White Sox thought they were getting much better than Jon Rauch/Luke Hochevar when they traded for Lucas Giolito.
Feel free to continue the conversation on Twitter: @DFappiano14
