Before we begin, I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas!
I know I did. After all, on Christmas Eve, the Chicago Bears avoided hitting the rockiest of bottoms by convincingly beating the Cleveland Browns at snowy Soldier Field. Mitch Trubisky beat his hometown team, and the defense, led by Kyle Fuller, swallowed poor DeShone Kizer whole.
The Bears head to Minneapolis this coming Sunday on New Year’s Eve to wrap up the 2017 calendar year, the 2017 regular season, and the John Fox Era, against the Minnesota Vikings. Trubisky will end his season versus the team he began it against too. The hope is he puts on a good performance to build on going into 2018 and a new coaching staff.
As we count down to the end of the regular season, and the Foxy Finale, we reach into this week’s Bears Mailbag. As a heads up, during the offseason, the frequency of the Mailbag will reduce from weekly to … well, not weekly. But keep your eye out for calls for questions throughout the offseason!
Thanks to everyone who submitted questions for this week. And I wish you an early Happy New Year!
At this point, we know that John Fox and his coaching staff are being let go at the end of the year. Ryan Pace has already started preparations to find the Bears’ next coach. My favorite candidates are John DeFilippo, Matt Patricia, and Matt Nagy. They all bring their own unique characteristics that would make the Bears better. My SM colleague, Erik Lambert, has written many detailed profiles on most of Chicago’s potential head coaching candidates.
We also know that the Bears have a ton of needs headed into the offseason. I would rank those needs in the following order: EDGE, WR, CB, and OL. Depth at DL, ILB and S wouldn’t be the worst things, either.
The Bears are expected to be flush with cap space, and should have even more money available once factoring in offseason cuts (I address whom I think are the top candidates to be cut later in the Mailbag).
That said, I would think the Bears will target many positions and players with the hope of filling major needs in free agency, which will allow them to go best player available in the draft (always a good strategy).
In free agency, while there are many targets, here are a few realistic targets I could see the Bears getting, including a key re-signing at CB:
EDGE: Jeremiah Attaochu, Shaquil Barrett (keep an eye on Trent Murphy)
WR: Sammy Watkins, Paul Richardson (keep an eye on Allen Robinson on a prove-it type deal, and on Davante Adams)
CB: Re-sign Kyle Fuller, Dontae Johnson, Nickell Robey-Coleman (keep an eye on Prince Amukamara)
Then, in the draft, assuming the Bears pick ninth overall where they are today (and not assuming any trades), here’s a first attempt at mocking their first three picks:
1st round: Clelin Ferrell, EDGE
2nd round: Christian Kirk, WR (I’d be surprised if he made it this far in the draft, honestly, but a guy can dream)
3rd round: No pick currently per the Mitch Trubisky trade
4th round: Austin Bryant, EDGE (I wouldn’t be surprised if they even triple-dipped at EDGE later in the draft)
Kyle Fuller has played very well this season. There’s no doubt about it. It’s interesting that teams continue to throw at him each game, and he’s certainly been burned in a few games, but for the most part, he has held his own and shut down opposing receivers. He’s by far the Bears’ comeback player of the year.
The thing about Fuller is that nobody expected this from him given the year he had last year, when Vic Fangio called him out. So Chicago was justified in not picking up his fifth year option. Now that he’s played well, he deserves to be brought back, but maybe not at the contract he’s seeking. It’s always tricky evaluating a player during a contract year when their whole body of work is mixed. But the Bears would objectively be worse off without Fuller, who is still an ascending player (he’ll only be 26 next season). The Bears do have the luxury of the franchise tag in case Fuller wants to test the open market or rejects any extension offers, but the tag is a tad rich for Fuller’s value. And remember, the tag value, which is estimated at > $15M next year, essentially becomes the starting point for negotiations the following year.
The Bears would be wise to agree to a deal with him without the tag. My best guess for Fuller’s value, and a deal I’d be happy giving him, is somewhere around 4 years, $48 million with about $24 million guaranteed.
There are many candidates, mostly from Ryan Pace’s most recent free agent class, who could be cut this offseason. The top three candidates, in my opinion, are:
1) Mike Glennon — The reasons are pretty obvious.
2) Marcus Cooper — He’s been relegated to the bench after signing a big contract. And he did more harm than good when he was on the field.
3) Markus Wheaton — The reasons are pretty obvious.
Honorable Mention: Quintin Demps — It seems the Bears may have their starting safety tandem of the future in Eddie Jackson and Adrian Amos. Keeping Demps as expensive depth doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Obviously there is always inherent risk with every coaching hire. But I think the chances of Ryan Pace finding the right coach are pretty good. If we know anything about Pace, it’s that he’s diligent, almost obsessive in his preparation, and will leave no stone un-turned during this search. Reports are out that he’s been working on his short list of candidates to interview throughout the season. So you can guarantee that if there’s a good candidate to be had, Pace will interview and evaluate them. That type of due diligence leads to success more often than not.
Whomever the Bears hire as their next head coach, you can bet that it’ll be someone that Ryan Pace believes is the best overall coach. He won’t give special preference to offensive minded coaches due to Mitch Trubisky’s presence. And that’s exactly what the Bears need.
There shouldn’t be any qualifiers when it comes to this search. It should be someone that pays attention to detail, has the attention and respect of his players, has the ability to adjust to their opponent and situation, takes proper and calculated risks, the list goes on. The head coach will find the support he needs on the “other” side of the ball. That’s what matters the most.
You put this team in the hands of the right coaches with the right mindset, and this team should take off. They have way more talent than people seem to think. 2018 should open some eyes.
