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Miguel Vargas Is Dominating Despite Ridiculous Bad Luck

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The White Sox had a great homestand, as they won four out of their six games against two different division rivals. You couldn’t ask for much more, but now the White Sox will need to lock in, as they have two big series on the road against the Baltimore Orioles and the Cleveland Guardians.

Miguel Vargas was the star of the most recent series against the Kansas City Royals, as he went 6 for 11 with two home runs and seven RBIs in the series. This is an exemplification of Vargas’ 2026 season, as he has been an all-star third baseman.

On the season, Vargas is hitting .252 with a .366 on base percentage. He’s hit 19 home runs, has 52 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases. This is good for an elite .866 OPS. These numbers are some of the best among AL third basemen. If he’s not selected to the all-star team, that would be one of the biggest snubs in the league.

If that wasn’t impressive enough, this is all despite Vargas being one of the unluckiest hitters in the major leagues. As you can see below in the graph created by Thomas Nestico, Vargas has been the fourth most unlucky hitter in the league. This is kind of hard to believe, as he has still put up career high numbers. 

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Miguel Vargas’ weighted on base average is .358. However, his expected weighted on base average is .395. This is good for a -.037 difference on how he’s actually played this season. MLB.com defines weighted on base average as a “version of on-base percentage that accounts for how a player reached base — instead of simply considering whether a player reached base. The value for each method of reaching base is determined by how much that event is worth in relation to projected runs scored (example: a double is worth more than a single).”

Essentially, weighted on base average gives more weight to a player that hits doubles, triples, and home runs, rather than a player who simply gets on base hitting singles.

Despite Vargas being extremely unlucky this season, he has still been one of the best hitters on the first place White Sox squad. This is exactly what Chris Getz and the organization envisioned for Vargas when they acquired him in the big three-team trade at the 2024 deadline.

Vargas has come a long way from the 2024 season, where he hit just .104 in 42 games with the White Sox after the trade. In just two seasons, Vargas has gone from one of the worst hitters in league to one of the best third basemen in the AL. 

Vargas’ improvement is a testament to how hard he’s worked over the last two seasons, as well as the White Sox player development system, as they made an adjustment with his batting stance, which has been part of the reason why Vargas has seen so much more success. 

At this point, Vargas will likely hit 30+ home runs and drive in 100 runs this season. If you told somebody in 2024 that Vargas would be putting up these kind of numbers, they would’ve called you crazy. Hopefully Vargas is rewarded with an all-star nod, as there isn’t a more deserving player.

Craig Rowland
Craig Rowland
Craig is a former college baseball player and currently a practicing attorney. He is a lifelong White Sox fan and has been covering the team for Sports Mockery since 2022. Prior to Sports Mockery, Craig started the White Sox podcast "A Seat At The Table" while completing his undergraduate degree at the University of Illinois.

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