Davis Martin’s season has gone from promising to precarious in the blink of an eye. Once viewed as the Chicago White Sox’s ace and a potential All-Star, Martin has watched his breakout campaign unravel at the worst possible time, culminating in an ejection on Thursday.
Martin has been abysmal over his last 15 starts, posting a 6.52 ERA across 60 innings while allowing 80 hits during that span. Much of his recent struggles have stemmed from his inability to navigate the first inning cleanly.
Martin owns a 6.00 ERA across the 24 first innings he has pitched this season, with only the fourth inning, often when opposing lineups turn over for the third time, producing a higher mark. As a result, Martin has routinely been chased from games early, turning what was one of his biggest strengths early in the season, eating innings for the bullpen, into a significant hindrance.
The White Sox went 6-1 in Martin’s first seven starts, with the 29-year-old pitching at least six innings in five of those outings. Over his last 10 starts, however, he has reached the sixth inning just twice while averaging only 4.1 innings per start.
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Thursday afternoon marked the latest installment. Five days after allowing two runs in the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians before rain cut his outing short, Martin lasted just two innings against the Cincinnati Reds. His day ended when he was ejected after hitting Sal Stewart on the bill of his helmet with a fastball.
The incident prompted both benches to clear and was partly fueled by Martin’s previous pitch sailing over Stewart’s head. The pitch did not appear to be intentional, with Martin later revealing he was dealing with a blister on his middle finger that was impacting his grip. Still, the circumstances were made more tense by the fact that Stewart had launched a 419-foot homer off Martin in his previous at-bat.
Home-plate umpire Alan Porter explained his decision to toss Martin to reporters after the game.
“So, first inning, Stewart hit his home run and probably admired it a little too long at the plate,” Porter explained. “And the next at-bat, he came up in the third. First pitch he threw a strike, and then next pitch went well above his head but definitely in his direction. Then he hit him with the next pitch. At that point we needed to do what we needed to do to keep the game safe, basically.”
While rain and an ejection have been the reasons Martin has thrown just three combined innings over his last two starts, those abbreviated outings are nonetheless taking a toll on the White Sox bullpen.
Whether it’s a blister affecting his control or the pitch tipping Kyle Teel identified during Martin’s nine-earned-run outing against the Boston Red Sox, there have been multiple explanations for his struggles. What has remained consistent, however, is Martin’s inability to make the necessary adjustments as the season has worn on.
There were warning signs early in the season that Martin was due for regression. Opponents posted a .274 expected batting average against him through his first seven starts, despite Martin carrying a stellar 1.64 ERA at the time. Since then, his ERA has ballooned to 4.32, while his opponents’ expected batting average has actually slightly dipped to .272.
What has been most concerning for the White Sox’s longest-tenured player, however, has been his inability to consistently generate swings and misses. Whether that is tied to the pitch tipping Teel alluded to remains to be seen, but Martin’s 20% strikeout rate and 24% whiff rate both currently rank below the MLB average. That, paired with a pedestrian ground ball rate, has been a recipe for disaster.
His struggles haven’t been due to a lack of strike-throwing, either. Martin’s walk rate remains better than the league average, while his fastball run value has also graded above the MLB average. His offspeed run value with his changeup and sinker has been even more impressive, ranking in Baseball Savant’s 85th percentile. The most glaring weakness has been his breaking pitches, particularly his slider and curveball, which both have a negative run value.
Martin’s overall numbers remain largely in line with what he has produced throughout his four-year MLB career, raising the possibility that this recent rough patch is less of an anomaly and more a regression toward the pitcher he has been for most of his career.
But with the White Sox in the midst of a pennant race, they can’t afford for Martin’s regression to continue.
