With only one week left in the regular season and six games remaining for each team, much of the MLB postseason seeding is still up in the air. The Chicago Cubs are a win away from clinching their second consecutive playoff berth, and although they’re currently slotted into the top Wild Card seed and thus have home-field advantage in the first round, they’re not necessarily locked into a home Wild Card series thanks to a late-season surge by the San Diego Padres.
We could see a Wild Card rematch from the 2025 MLB Playoffs, as the Padres have jumped up the standings and now share the Cubs’ record. However, the Cubs do hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Padres, so at this point they remain in the No. 1 Wild Card spot.
The Padres have been on a remarkable run that began after they lost a series on the road to the Cincinnati Reds at the start of September. Since then, the Padres are 14-2 with series wins over the New York Yankees, Washington Nationals, San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies, and the Miami Marlins. So, while they haven’t faced the toughest opponents besides the Yankees, the Padres are the hottest team in MLB and are gaining confidence heading into the playoffs.
During this 16-game stretch, the Padres have the No. 1 offense in MLB, posting an incredible 140 wRC+ and averaging six runs per game, second-best in the league.
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However, it’s not like the Padres are safely locked into one of the top Wild Card seeds either, because they only have a one-game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies, who have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Padres.
So, while the Cubs are currently looking at a rematch against the Padres, either at home or in San Diego, the final six games of the regular season still hold a lot of significance. The Arizona Diamondbacks are the only other National League team chasing one of the final Wild Card spots.
NL Wild Card Standings (Sept. 21)
Chicago Cubs: 87-69
San Diego Padres: 87-69
Philadelphia Phillies: 86-70
Arizona Diamondbacks: 82-74 (4 GB)
Remaining Schedules:
Cubs: 3 vs. Marlins, 3 at Red Sox
Padres: 3 at Dodgers, 3 vs. Diamondbacks
Phillies: 3 vs. Brewers, 3 vs. Rays
The Cubs will either clinch a playoff berth with their next win or a Diamondbacks loss. Yet, securing a home series in the Wild Card round remains uncertain. The Cubs still could slip to the No. 3 Wild Card seed and have to play the Atlanta Braves on the road.
Arizona ends its regular season with six road games, three apiece against the Rockies and Padres. Not to jinx it, but I’m counting them out. Again, if the Cubs win one more game, then the Diamondbacks are eliminated from playoff contention. So, here are the potential matchups for the Cubs.
Potential Wild Card Matchups for the Cubs
Cubs host Padres
Cubs host Phillies
Padres host Cubs
Phillies host Cubs
Braves host Cubs
The best-of-three Wild Card Series begins on Sept. 29.
