Opening Day is less than three weeks away and the Chicago Cubs currently have their starting rotation pretty much in place. Craig Counsell will name the Opening Day starter soon, while the only other real question is whether the team decides to go with a six-man rotation once Justin Steele returns.
Barring injury, the Cubs will begin the 2026 season with a starting rotation made up of Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd, Edward Cabrera, Shōta Imanaga and Jameson Taillon. It may only be spring training, but fans are already preparing for the worst and concerns are rising for a pair of the back-end starters, which leads to the question, who should the Cubs be worried about the most? Imanaga or Taillon?
It was quite telling that the Cubs refused to use Imanaga in Game 5 of the NLDS last year and then tried to get a draft pick out of his free agency after declining his option and tagging with the qualifying offer. Yet, Imanaga didn’t want to gamble in the open market and took the guaranteed $22.05 million salary to remain with the Cubs in 2026. His home run issues were glaring and although it is only spring training Imanaga continues to give up the long ball in Arizona.
In his first season with the Cubs Imanaga recorded a 2.91 ERA with a 25.1 K% in 173.1 innings. He was fantastic generating whiffs with an elevated fastball that was paired up with a devastating splitter. However, an a hamstring injury in 2025, may have been the root cause to Imanaga’s decreased velocity and at least the Cubs are hoping that a healthy Imanaga can return to his 2024 form.
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We have at least seen the velocity back up for Imanaga in spring training. He was dialing it up to 94mph in his spring training debut, but he’s settled into the 92-93 mph range in his last two starts. And as we saw in 2024, that’s really all the velocity Imanaga needs to get MLB hitters out at the plate. In 2025, that fastball velocity only averaged 90.8 mph.
Still, four home runs allowed in 8.1 innings so far in spring training can definitely bring some pause for optimism on Imanaga’s 2026 season.
Somewhat similar is Taillon’s velocity so far in camp. The 34-year-old is in his final year of his contract with the Cubs and despite his strong finish to 2025, some fans still can’t quite buy into his profile. Taillon pounds the strike zone and at times that can come back to hurt him immensely against aggressive teams. He also gave up a lot of home runs in 2025, but like Imanaga, Taillon helps his cause by avoiding walks and inducing weak contact.
He hasn’t averaged 95mph+ with his fastball since his first few years with the Pittsburgh Pirates and Taillon has relied on his pitch mix and sequencing to get outs as his stuff has declined, but you would still want to see him get a little more on his fastball.
Again, it is still early March, so there’s time for Taillon to keep ramping up, but him only averaging 90.8 mph against Panama in the World Baseball Classic on Sunday was a little worrying. Still, Taillon proved that velocity isn’t everything and he can still get outs.
I guess the good news is that despite whoever you are worried about the most, the Cubs aren’t necessarily living or dying with either pitcher’s performance. Both Taillon and Imanaga are replaceable at any point this year if they don’t execute. Behind them there’s Steele, who is targeting a May or early June return, and aside from him the team’s depth expands to Colin Rea, Javier Assad, Ben Brown, while the organization’s top pitching prospect Jaxon Wiggins is also on the doorstep of MLB at Triple-A.
We talked about rotation concerns in the latest Pinwheels And Ivy podcast. The reality is, there’s probably a little to worry about for each starting pitcher heading into the 2026 season.
Check out the full episode below.
