One major spring training battle is the fifth spot in the starting rotation for the Cubs and last week David Ross revealed the three pitchers at the top of the list competing for the job.

No real surprises and fans did get the confirmation about two other pitchers who have been in the rotation in prior years, but are now firmly stationed in the bullpen in 2023. Ross told reporters that right-handed pitchers Adrian Sampson, Hayden Wesneski and Javier Assad are the three main competitors for the last spot in the rotation. Meanwhile, Adbert Alzolay and Keegan Thompson will have their full focus as relievers.

So yeah, maybe one of the non-roster invitees really impresses the Cubs during spring training, maybe a veteran like Roenis Elías, but heading into camp the battle is between those three right-handers. Let’s take a closer look at Sampson, Wesneski and Assad, and my prediction as to how things shake out once the season gets underway.

Adrian Sampson

Age: 31
MLB Experience: 72 Games, 44 Starts, 292.2 IP
MiLB Options: 3

Adrian Sampson was drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2012, and after a few years in the minors he was traded to the Seattle Mariners in the middle of the 2015 season. Sampson only made one start for the Mariners because after his MLB debut in 2016, the right-hander suffered a season-ending arm injury when he was warming up for his second ever start in the majors. The Texas Rangers claimed Sampson off waivers the following offseason and from 2018-19, Sampson posted a 5.64 ERA in 148.1 innings after returning from his injury.

Sampson spent 2020 pitching in the KBO, but his numbers didn’t get any better there. The Cubs signed him to a minor league deal prior to the 2021 season and after he was called up, Sampson’s results were good despite some of the peripherals not looking all that great. In 2022, Sampson had his best year in the majors, posting a 1.5 fWAR in 104.1 innings, making 19 starts and two relief appearances for the Cubs.

In two seasons with the Cubs Sampson has recorded a 3.03 ERA in 139.2 innings, making 24 starts during that stretch.

Hayden Wesneski

Age: 25
MLB Experience: 6 Games, 4 Starts, 33 IP
MiLB Options: 3

Right-hander Hayden Wesneski was drafted by the New York Yankees in 2019, and he was acquired by the Cubs in 2022, in exchange for reliever Scott Effross. Wesneski got his first taste of the big leagues in September of last year, making six overall appearances and four starts for the Cubs. He was impressive to say the least, showing off a nasty slider and you ca never really explain it, but Wesneski had that x-factor on the mound, and the results matched the confidence as he posted a 2.18 ERA in 33 innings.

Overall in 2022, Wesneski tossed 143.1 innings between his time in the minors and majors, a jump from 130.1 innings in 2021. We’ll see how much the Cubs push his innings in 2023.

Javier Assad

Age: 25
MLB Experience: 9 Games, 8 Starts, 37.2 IP
MiLB Options: 3

I remember watching Javier Assad during spring training last year, but having no previous knowledge about him I didn’t pay close attention. Maybe if I had I wouldn’t have been surprised when he came up to the majors and recorded a 3.11 ERA in 37.2 innings.

Assad was signed as an international free agent in 2015 out of Mexico by the Cubs. Last year he definitely had his breakout season, as he jumped from Double-A to MLB and he certainly earned it, recording sub-3 ERAs in his stops with the Tennessee Smokies and Iowa Cubs before making his MLB debut against the St. Louis Cardinals in late August.

It wasn’t always pretty, as Assad’s pitch count would lead to early exits, but the young righty found a way to work around trouble and limit damage for the most part.

Prediction

I’ll begin by saying that all three pitchers will ultimately start games for the Cubs in 2023. That’s just the nature of a long MLB season and the way teams are more wary of overextending their pitchers nowadays. But as far as who gets the first crack at the fifth starter spot, I think it will go to Adrian Sampson. He’s been solid with the Cubs since joining the team two years ago and he did make serious strides late in 2022 to suggest his success wasn’t mostly based on luck.

The other factor is that we have already seen the Cubs ease their young starting pitchers in the majors by using them out of the bullpen. It worked with Justin Steele and Keegan Thompson and looking at Wesneski’s stuff, the Cubs may think he could be even more valuable as a reliever, at least to begin the season. It’s also a way to ramp up Wesneski’s work load as the season moves along.

As for Assad, he will most likely begin at Triple-A rather than being placed in the MLB bullpen for the Cubs and he’ll be one of the first guys called up whenever there is a need for a spot starter or in case of injury to the rotation. If you’re the Cubs, you don’t want too many guys in the bullpen who haven’t been stretched out if there is a need for a starter, which we know at some point that need will arise.

As things stand now, the Cubs starting rotation will be comprised of Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly along with the winner of the fifth spot battle. At some point, Kyle Hendricks will get back in the mix. Fingers crossed, as Hendricks will not be ready to go by Opening Day, as the veteran right-hander is making his return from a shoulder injury.