Monday, April 22, 2024

Theo Epstein Must Love This Bryce Harper Contract Projection


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Guys, I’m not saying it’s a guarantee that the Chicago Cubs are going to sign Bryce Harper, but I am saying if this latest contract projection is remotely close to being right, then yes the Cubs are signing Bryce Harper after the 2018 season.

Harper, as we know, will be a free agent this upcoming offseason and for a few years everyone has tried to estimate what his mega deal could be. I mean, you don’t always get the chance to sign one of the best players in the game when they’re in their mid-20s. So, $300 million, $400 million?

Honestly, I don’t care how much money he gets and I especially don’t care if the Cubs overpay, but Dan Szymborski’s contract projection for Harper would be a bargain for Harper and there’s no doubt in my mind Theo Epstein would jump on that in a split second.

In Szymborski’s ESPN Insider article, he projected contracts for some of the biggest free agents in the offseason and surprisingly Harper isn’t projected to get the most money.

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Szymborski projected the contracts using the ZiPS projection system, and how teams have previously paid free agents.

The highest projected deal? Manny Machado.


Manny Machado: Eight years, $300 million priced as a shortstop, or $264 million over eight years as a third baseman.

That’s $42 million more than what’s projected for Harper.

Bryce Harper: Eight years, $258 million.

The difference goes back to the value at each position, so that’s why Machado is valued higher at third or shortstop compared to Harper in the outfield.

But anyway, eight years for $258 million, an average of $32.25 million per season for Bryce Harper’s prime years?!?!?! GET IT DONE THEO!

However, you know as well as I know that Harper is getting more than $258 million and whatever contract he receives will include a few opt-out clauses. If Giancarlo Stanton signed a 13-year deal worth $25 million a year, then Harper is getting more than $258 million.

Obviously there’s the chance that Harper gets hurt and misses games in 2018 that could decrease his value, or can be used against him in contract negotiations, but so far so good for the 2015 MVP.

We get it Bryce, you don’t have to keep impressing the Cubs like this, we know you’re great, now you’re just showing off. Not that Cubs fans will mind when he’s doing it on the North Side starting next season.

Harper is getting at least $300 million and $400 million is a real possibility. The Cubs signing him for that much is also a possibility and if you don’t think the Cubs are going to be in the mix then you’re going to be in for a nice surprise. Well, at least if you’e a Cubs fan.

And if you don’t want Bryce Harper on the team as a Cubs fan, then stop watching baseball.

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