It’s been a little more than four weeks since the Cubs optioned Matt Shaw to Triple-A, where the organization was hopeful that their top prospect would regain the tools that made him successful climbing up through the system. Shaw posted below-average numbers at the plate in 18 games to begin the 2025 season that featured a lot of bad swing decisions, weak contact and an overall sense that Shaw was not playing like himself.
Following a slow start in Iowa after his demotion, Shaw appeared to have flipped the switch. He had a four-game stretch at the end of April, when Shaw was 10-for-17, with a home run and three doubles. However, as Michael Cerami wrote in Bleacher Nation, those results looked good on paper, but it was more of the same from Shaw. He was making plenty of contact, which he did with the Cubs, but even the hits came via weak contact.
Via Bleacher Nation.
Indeed, only five of those 16 balls in play qualify as hard contact (31.2%), and that’s an average exit velocity of just 86.9 MPH. Compare those stats to the production of the average big league hitter in MLB (40.4 hard%, 89.4 MPH EV) and you can see why I’m a little less enthused by the TYPE of good results he’s getting.
At the end of the day you’ll take the results regardless of how they’re achieved, but it does raise questions whether or not it can be sustainable. It’s not too complicated, the more often you make hard contact the better results you’ll get over the long run.
And guess what, Shaw is doing it again. He’s back to consistently hitting the ball hard.
On Thursday, Shaw capped off a double header sweep by hitting a walk-off home run in Iowa. It was his second home run of the game after also hitting a leadoff homer to start the nightcap.
In this recent hot stretch covering his last four games Shaw is 6-for-16, with three home runs. Now, let’s take a closer look at the batted ball data from this week.
May 13
Lineout, 102.1mph, 22 degrees
Groundout, 109.9mph, -19 degrees
Flyout, 89.8mph, 25 degrees
Homerun, 105.1mph, 23 degrees
Lineout, 105.5mph, 14 degrees
May 14
Groundout, 64.2mph, -39 degrees
Lineout, 97.3mph, 20 degrees
Single, 89.8mph, 3 degrees
Single, 98.1mph, 5 degrees
May 15 (Game 1)
Single, 86.3mph, 11 degrees
Groundout, 92.9mph, -13 degrees
Groundout, 62.7mph, 15 degrees
May 15 (Game 2)
Homerun, 95.6mph, 27 degrees
Groundout, 103.2mph, 8 degrees
Homerun, 102.5mph, 31 degrees
So, back in April when Shaw went on a hot streak he only had a 31.2% hard-hit rate with an average exit velocity of 86.9mph. This time around, Shaw hit 9 of 15 (60%) balls in play with an exit velocity above 95mph, which is what qualifies as hard contact. Overall, out of those 15 balls in play, Shaw recorded an average exit velocity of 93.7mph.
It’s not just a four-game stretch either. Last week Shaw had 14 balls in play and seven of them were hard contact. That’s now an eight-game stretch in which every other time Shaw hits the ball, he’s hitting it 95mph or harder.
The results have been great and the way Shaw is getting to those results is even better. His first four games at Triple-A this year were brutal, as Shaw went 1-for-13. Since then, Shaw is 22-for-68, slashing .324/.418/.603, in 79 plate appearances. That includes the same amount of walks as strikeouts, 10.
Even with the awful start, Shaw has a 144 wRC+ in 98 plate appearances at Triple-A. Not sure how much more the Cubs need to see, but Shaw is doing his thing again and it’s great to see. Hopefully that’ll be in a Cubs uniform sooner rather than later.
