It’s basically a march to 85 wins. Yup, that’s more than enough to win the 2023 National League Central Division according to the current projections. Is it likely that the Chicago Cubs will win it? No. Is it impossible? No. The NL Central is bad and I’m not saying you should be happy about a mid-80s win team, but the goal is to make the playoffs and winning the division is the easiest path for the Cubs this year.
The Cubs entered the All-Star break on a good note, winning two of three against the New York Yankees in the Bronx, capping off a 4-3 road trip that began in Milwaukee. Since June 9, the Cubs have a 16-11 record, but thanks to a brutal month of May, when they went 10-18, the Cubs have to climb back from seven games out of first place.
Current NL Central Standings
Reds: 50-41
Brewers: 49-42 (1GB)
Cubs: 42-47 (7 GB)
Pirates: 41-49 (8.5 GB)
Cardinals: 38-52 (11.5 GB)
Second Half Schedule
The front office is still weighing whether or not they’re going to sell, buy or a mix of both at the trade deadline. Obviously being 7 games back of the first-place Reds makes you think the Cubs should be selling, but the next three weeks provide the Cubs with a great chance to close the gap in the standings.
Starting Friday, when the Cubs begin a three-game series against the Boston Red Sox, the team has 16 games leading up to a four-game series against the Reds. Out of those 16 games, only the first three against the Red Sox are against a team with a winning record. And the Cubs aren’t just facing sub-.500 clubs, three of the worst six teams in baseball are on their schedule in the next three weeks.
Cubs Upcoming Schedule (team record)
July 14-16: vs. Red Sox (48-43)
July 17-19: vs. Nationals (36-54)
July 20-23: vs. Cardinals (38-52)
July 25-26: @ White Sox (38-54)
July 27-30: @ Cardinals (38-52)
That’s 13 straight games against really bad teams. If the Cubs want to stay in the mix, then they must take advantage of that part of their upcoming schedule.
Meanwhile, the Reds kick off the second half with five straight series against teams with winning records: Brewers (6 Games) Giants (4 Games) Diamondbacks (3 Games) Dodgers (3 Games).
Same goes for the Brewers, who besides the 6 games against the Reds, also have to play 6 games against the Braves and 3 games against the Phillies.
Current NL Central Projections
According to FanGraphs, the Brewers are projected to win the NL Central with a record of 84-78. The Cubs are projected to finish in third place with 78 wins, but they are still given an 8.8% chance to win the division and about a 10% chance to make the playoffs.
Over at Baseball Reference, the Cubs currently have a nearly 30% chance to win the division and 1/3 chance to make the postseason, projected to win 82 games. Baseball Reference, like FanGraphs, has the 2023 NL Central champion projected to win about 84 games.
I think 85 games will be enough to win the division this year, which means the following has to happen for that to be the Cubs.
- Cubs end season 43-30 or better.
- Reds end season 34-37 or worse.
- Brewers end season 35-36 or worse.
After starting the season 20-8, the Pirates have gone 21-41 since April 30. Sorry, it was a fun story at first, but the Pirates are a non-factor. The Cardinals? They’re about to be sellers.
The Reds are an exciting, young team and I bet they don’t go away without a fight. However, Cincinnati’s pitching staff that currently has the second worst ERA in the NL, does not seem sustainable to remain a first-place team. We just saw the Cubs play the Brewers in Milwaukee and they’re not a good team either.
But again, these next three weeks are key. The Cubs have to make up some ground against a weak schedule. Win a bad division, get into the playoffs and then who the hell knows.
