The Chicago Cubs have a laundry list of players who will be free agents after the 2026 season, and while deciding whether to pursue some of them will be important, the front office will have its plate full, as several key players are also arbitration-eligible heading into 2027.
There are 12 Cubs from the 2026 roster who will be arbitration-eligible, and although not every player will return, most will, which will be costly for the Cubs as they receive pay raises. MLB Trade Rumors released its annual arbitration projections, so let’s go over them and pinpoint the easy choices, the few fringe guys, and the handful of players who will not return next season.
2027 Cubs Arbitration Projections
(service time: projected salary)
- Justin Steele (5.143): $6.8 million
- Edward Cabrera (4.147): $4.8 million
- Braxton Garrett (4.006): $1.6 million
- Javier Assad (3.167): $2.3 million (Cubs hold a $3.3 million option)
- Tyler Austin (3.151): $1.3 million
- Miguel Amaya (3.130): $1.7 million
- Gabriel Arias (3.124): $1.3 million
- Ryan Rolison (3.109): $1.1 million
- Ethan Roberts (3.080): $800,000
- Michael Busch (3.045): $5.4 million
- Ben Brown (2.169): $1.3 million
- Daniel Palencia (2.154): $1.2 million
One wrinkle among the 12 players listed above is right-handed pitcher Javier Assad. He’ll 100% return in 2027, but before that becomes official, we’ll see news that the Cubs will decline his $3.3 million option for next year. As the projection shows, Assad’s estimated 2027 salary will be discounted compared to the mutual option he and the Cubs previously agreed to.
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The rest of the arb-eligible pitchers are easy decisions, except for one, and it has nothing to do with cost.
Ethan Roberts was drafted in 2018, made his first Opening Day roster in 2022, and, although there have been glimpses of success, several injuries have derailed his momentum. Roberts has a career 4.70 ERA and a 19.0 K% rate in 63 games with the Cubs. This may be the time when Roberts could benefit from a change of scenery, while the Cubs make room on the 40-man roster for a better alternative.
Justin Steele, Edward Cabrera, Ben Brown, and, to some extent, Braxton Garrett could all be key contributors in 2027.
Steele will return after a near two-year layoff, but the lefty at least pitched in Triple-A to end the 2026 season. Unlike this year, fans won’t be crossing their fingers and hoping Steele can come back. He’s healthy, should follow a normal offseason schedule, and will be ready to go when spring training begins next year.
Cabrera. Woof. He and the Cubs coaching staff have a lot of work to do, but maybe it’s as simple as figuring out how to deal with his recurring blister issue. Yet, that alone may not actually be simple. The Cubs traded a top prospect for him, so they’re not going to give up on him after a very disappointing year.
One of the biggest letdowns in 2026 was the Brown neck injury. That’s the second time in three years Brown has dealt with the same issue, and there’s no guarantee it won’t happen again. Maybe they’ll cut his workload, but he was awesome for three months and finally started pitching like the dominant arm the organization thought they had.
Garrett finished the 2026 season strong at Triple-A and also left a lasting impression by throwing five innings of one-run ball against the Boston Red Sox in the regular-season finale. The lefty could compete for the fifth starter spot in 2027, and if he falls short, Garrett could still be a viable bullpen option.
Michael Busch and Miguel Amaya left much to be desired in their underwhelming 2026 performances, but they’ll definitely be back. Busch finished with 20 home runs and a slugging % below .400. His 112 wRC+ ranked 18th among all first basemen in 2026. Very pedestrian numbers, but Busch provides good defense and a high floor at first. Would not be surprised to see a big bounce-back year from him.
As for Amaya, he’s been a decent backup, but he hasn’t shown the ability to be an All-Star-caliber catcher. He’s fine, and for a backup catcher, that’s better than most.
Daniel Palencia remains a high-upside bullpen arm, and his projected cost is worth his potential. We’ve seen how good he can be in 2025, but Palencia took a step back in 2026. Injury concerns will remain, but the Cubs will obviously retain the right-handed pitcher.
Rolison was fantastic in 2026 and eventually became one of the team’s most trusted relievers, so he’ll get a well-deserved reward for his efforts heading into 2027.
Tyler Austin? See ya. Gabriel Arias? He’s somewhat intriguing. The infielder is still only 26-years-old and plays solid defense on the diamond. However, Arias doesn’t project to offer much offensive upside moving forward; at about a $1.3 million salary, the Cubs may bring him back, considering they wouldn’t be breaking the bank for the last guy on the bench.
We’re looking at about $26 million in added payroll for the arb-eligible players we expect to return in 2027.
