A catcher has won the MVP Award in the National League only once since 1972, but in Bleacher Report’s bold predictions for the 2018 MLB season, another catcher will be added to the short list in what is the boldest Chicago Cubs prediction yet.
Bleacher Report’s lead MLB writer, Zachary Rymer, listed 15 bold predictions, varying from team performances to individual player feats. The prediction that will make Cubs fans feel even more giddy about the upcoming season is No. 8 on the list.
Willson Contreras Will Win the NL MVP Award
Here’s Rymer’s explanation.
The .851 OPS and 33 homers he has in 193 career games qualify him as an excellent hitter by catcher standards. He was better than ever at last check, as he finished 2017 with a 1.000 OPS over his final 60 games.
The 25-year-old is also graced with a howitzer of a throwing arm. And according to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune, one of his primary goals for 2018 is improving his pitch framing.
If he does that while also continuing to do everything else, Contreras will emerge as an elite catcher for a team that’s ready, willing and able to win its second World Series in three years. MVP voters will be forced to take note.
Despite missing a month because of a hamstring injury, Contreras took the next step in his career in 2017, and most assuredly cemented himself as one of the best catchers in baseball entering 2018. He was on a mission in the second half of last year, posting a .993 OPS with 10 home runs in 128 at-bats. Overall, Contreras ended the year with a 3.2 fWAR in 117 games.
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But is it really plausible for Contreras to enter MVP discussion in 2018? Actually, it’s not too crazy of an idea.
Yes, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo would certainly gain attention if they have their usual great seasons in 2018, which should once again be another awesome season for the Cubs. But that could help Contreras in his case for MVP. Let’s just say Bryant and Rizzo put up their numbers, but Contreras goes off and plays an entire year. He’d get every bit as much attention from the media as Bryzzo would. Plus, you have to factor in the defense too for Contreras.
However, history shows it’s far from easy to win MVP as a catcher in the National League.
Buster Posey is the last catcher to win NL MVP, receiving the honor in 2012. The modern MVP has been awarded since 1931, with a total of only five catchers winning it in the National League.
NL catchers to win MVP
- Gabby Hartnett (1935, Cubs*)
- Ernie Lombardi (1938, Reds)
- Roy Campanella (1951, 1953*, 1955*, Dodgers)
- Johnny Bench (1970*, 1972*, Reds)
- Buster Posey (2012*, Giants)
So, 9 percent of the NL MVP winners during the last 87 years have been catchers and only one in the last 45 years. So yeah, Contreras could be in contention with a monster year, but even then it’ll be tough to actually win it. Guess that’s why it’s a bold prediction.
But hey, if you’re feeling a little lucky, maybe drop $10 on it to happen. Bovada currently has Contreras at +5000 to win MVP.
One last thing. This is only a coincidence because votes are sent before the playoffs, but check this out. A catcher has won NL MVP eight times since 1931 and out of those eight times the catcher’s team reached the World Series six times.
The last four times a catcher won MVP in the NL, his team ended the season as World Series champions.
Here’s to Willson Contreras keeping that streak going in 2018.
