The argument has been there since the season began. Matt Nagy is on thin ice with the Chicago Bears. He barely survived the ax this past offseason thanks to George McCaskey. A decision that drew a ton of heat from fans and media. Then when the team lucks into Justin Fields in the draft, the coach decides to bench him. This despite a firm belief that the young QB playing well is probably the only way he saves his job.
It makes sense logically, but is it true? People might be surprised by the data. While stability for a young quarterback was definitely a thing back in the 20th century, it appears NFL teams haven’t put nearly as much stock in it these days. There have been several examples of rookie QBs playing well the past few years only to see their head coaches fired the subsequent offseason.
- Justin Herbert: 4,336 yards, 31 TDs, and 10 INTs
- Daniel Jones: 3,027 yard, 24 TDs, and 12 INTs (12 games)
- Derek Carr: 3,270 yards, 21 TDs, and 12 INTs
- Jameis Winston: 4,042 yards, 22 TDs, and 15 INTs
- Marcus Mariota: 2,818 yards, 19 TDs, and 10 INTs (12 games)
Those are some pretty solid performances by rookie QBs.
Especially Herbert and Jones. Under normal circumstances, one would think the head coaches involved would’ve at least gotten one more year to see if they could take it a step further. Yet this wasn’t the case for any of them. All involved were fired after the year concluded. Why was this? The simplest answer of all. They didn’t win. Here is the record of each team at the end of those seasons.
- 7-9
- 4-12
- 3-13
- 6-10
- 3-13
This illustrates a key point. While the quarterback might be the most important position in football, this is still a team game. Seeing Fields play well would be nice, but how much of that can override watching the Bears lose a lot this season? This after having high expectations from making the playoffs last year.
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Nagy needs to develop Justin Fields but needs to win even more
George McCaskey said back in January he expects to see “progress” from this Bears team. Keep in mind Fields wasn’t on the roster at the time. This meant ownership wanted to see improvement from the 8-8 season they had in 2020. That means a winning record and another trip to the playoffs. Simply adding a rookie quarterback wouldn’t have lowered those expectations.
The good news in all of this? Justin Fields probably gives the Bears a better chance to win than Andy Dalton. While the veteran is smart and experienced, the reality is Fields can do more. He’s got a better arm and way better mobility. As he gains experience, he should get better. That was proven from his first start to his second. If the defense can continue to play well and they run the ball effectively? Chicago will be in ball games.
That falls to Nagy.
One could argue he sabotaged the team’s early efforts this season by insisting he call plays again. This despite limited evidence to suggest he’s good at it. Mercifully he gave it up after just three games. Now the Bears are 2-2 and about to enter their toughest stretch of the season. A stretch that could well determine his future as head coach.