Ready or not, the Justin Fields era is set to begin. Head coach Matt Nagy made that official on Wednesday when he announced the rookie would make his first start against the Cleveland Browns this weekend. It isn’t exactly what the team had in mind. They’d hoped to buy more time with Andy Dalton, who’d actually played well before suffering a bone bruise to his knee that knocked him out of the lineup.
With the veteran likely out for the next few weeks, it opens the door for Fields to seize the starting job. While Nagy continues to insist Dalton is the starter if healthy, that can change fast. Excitement over Fields is palpable for Bears fans. They’re hoping for fireworks right out of the gate from the 11th overall pick. One can’t blame them. They’ve been starved for a good quarterback for decades.
So what should the expectations even be?
Fields’ talent is undeniable. This is a young man with the capability to take over games. Is it possible for him to take off right from the jump? Sure. However, NFL history paints a consistent picture of what is more likely to happen. I went and found some notable examples of rookies who didn’t start right away but came in off the bench to do at some point in the season. The results were surprisingly consistent.
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Donovan McNabb
Ben Roethlisberger
Deshaun Watson
Baker Mayfield
Lamar Jackson
Based on this data, young quarterbacks tend to take somewhere around three to four starts before they begin showing more comfort on the field. That comfort leads to better production. One must understand the context here. Fields didn’t practice much in training camp with the first-team offense. So expecting everything to run smoothly right away is unreasonable. There are bound to be hiccups and learning moments. What matters is how the QB lets them impact his play.
Justin Fields tends to learn fast
He proved that in the preseason. The Buffalo Bills introduced him to some of the exotic blitz packages he can expect in the NFL. They even got a free rusher on Fields and blasted him for a big hit. Since then, neither opponent the quarterback faced has managed the same. Fields did a good job managing his protections and making sure blitzes were picked up. The next step is learning to understand coverages and taking advantage of them.
He did that at times against Cincinnati but there were moments where he seemed a bit hesitant to throw or didn’t see the open man. All things that happen with rookies. Justin Fields will get a proper first lesson on Sunday. The Browns have a good defense headlined by star pass rusher Myles Garrett. They aren’t going to let the kid be comfortable. He will have to learn to operate under less-than-ideal conditions.
That doesn’t bother him. Fields isn’t worried about winning the starting job. His focus is on one thing. Doing whatever it takes to make sure the Bears win games. That mentality is one of the reasons guys in the locker room have taken to him so fast. He is talented, confident, and a maniacal competitor. Given some time, he will show it.
