The NFL draft does not operate according to a fixed agenda. It’s unpredictable and that is what makes it so enticing to fans. They love being surprised by what can happen on draft day. Which team will move up? Which team will move down? Who will be drafted higher than expected? Who will take a tumble down the board? That last question could end up being especially pertinent for the Chicago Bears.
Here’s the thing. Good players fall through the cracks all the time. It’s not a fool-proof process. Talents who probably should’ve gone in the top 10 end up falling to the bottom of the 1st round. It happens every year. Todd McShay expected Jordan Love to go 6th overall in 2020. He ended up going 24th. Mel Kiper thought Montez Sweat would go 8th overall in 2019. He ended up going 26th. Guys fall for all sorts of reasons.
So that begs the question. Who among the top prospects in the 2021 class has a reasonably good chance of doing the same? I asked a number of experts around the draft community. While several names came up as possibilities, one that seemed to pop up a little more often than others?
Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith.
This seems crazy to think about. Smith is coming off one of the best two-year stints a wide receiver has had in college football history. A total of 185 catches for 3,112 yards and 37 touchdowns. A run that includes both a Heisman trophy and a national championship. The guy is a baller. So what could the problem be? Based on the latest reports, it stems from his physical makeup.
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Draft insider Tony Pauline of the Pro Football Network explained.
“He’s not as fast as Henry Ruggs. He is not as creative or quick as Jerry Jeudy. But he does enough to create yards, and he is better in space. Had a phenomenal year. I spoke to people in the league, and I am seeing a lot of unforced errors from DeVonta Smith. It didn’t really have to come to this.
“The guy gives a great speech after winning the Heisman. Said how this is the model for kids who are told they are too small or too slow, you can do it. Then he goes to the Senior Bowl and won’t step on the scale. He didn’t need to do that. He didn’t even need to show up at the Senior Bowl.”
The biggest concerns surrounding Smith have been his weight and his speed. Current estimates have him at around 170 lbs. That is incredibly light. Only one receiver who got drafted since 1999 weighed less. Add in the fact he refused to run at his pro day and it’s only feeding into the concerns teams have about his translation to the NFL.
Chicago Bears should absolutely be watching Smith
Why are people so bent out of shape about this? It would be one thing if Smith were that size and really fast. Yet many believe his top speed hovers in the low 4.5 range. Hardly blazing. So he’s an average-speed receiver with a slender frame. This is a warning sign for somebody that is going to have injury problems at the next level. Their bodies aren’t usually able to take the pounding of a full NFL schedule.
The most common comparison for Smith is former Indianapolis Colts star Marvin Harrison. That sounds great but Harrison wasn’t drafted in the top 10 either. He fell to the 19th pick for the same exact reasons. A skinnier frame and lack of top-end speed. If it could happen to him, it’s not crazy to think the same could happen to Smith.
If it does, fans should be excited.
The Chicago Bears would get themselves a really good football player if he happened to reach the 20th pick. He may never be a true #1 option but he can be a massive upgrade over what they have in Anthony Miller in the slot. A smart, disciplined, and quick receiver with outstanding route-running ability. He just knows how to get open. A trio of him, Darnell Mooney, and Allen Robinson would be fun. Maybe the Bears will get lucky.