Wednesday, April 17, 2024

What NFL History Tells The Chicago Bears About Trading Down From #9 Pick

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The Chicago Bears have four options on the table for the #9 pick later this month. They’re taking a quarterback at #1. That much is obvious. Most believe it’s down to a wide receiver, pass rusher, offensive tackle, or a trade down with the other. GM Ryan Poles only has four picks left in this draft after multiple trades landed them Montez Sweat, Ryan Bates, and Keenan Allen. It isn’t hard to imagine he’d entertain the idea of moving down from #9. The obvious question is what he could get if that happens.

I did some digging on the history of such moves happening at that spot. Surprisingly, it’s been rare over the past 30 years. Only three times has a team moved down instead of up from that spot. Here are the results from each such instance.

  • 1996: Oilers trade #9 to Raiders for #17, a 2nd round pick, and 4th round pick
  • 2016: Buccaneers trade #9 to Bears for #11 and 4th round pick
  • 2023: Bears trade #9 to Eagles for #10 and future 4th round pick

The results of those trades were as follows. Houston traded up from #17 to #14 to select running back Eddie George. The 2nd round pick became guard Jason Lyman and the 4th round pick became future Pro Bowl tackle Jon Runyan, though his success came in Philadelphia. Tampa Bay selected cornerback Vernon Hargreaves withe the 11th pick and used the 4th to move up in the 2nd round for kicker Roberto Aguayo. Chicago dropped one spot before grabbing Tennessee tackle Darnell Wright. The 4th rounder has not yet been utilized.

The Chicago Bears’ trade return depends on how far they drop.

Based on history, they could secure a 2nd round pick if they’re willing to fall into the bottom half of the teens. Remember, they don’t have a 2nd due to the Sweat trade. Poles may wish to get that back. The difficult part is determining if there will be any players available in that range the Bears would be happy with. Experts believe there are around 15-16 true 1st round talents in this class. So dropping to between 17th and 20th would be risky. Poles may wish to keep the drop shorter, which means a smaller return.

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All things being equal, his goal might be to drop far enough to get another 3rd rounder. That would give the Chicago Bears more flexibility on Day 2 of the draft, maybe to move up for somebody they love in the 2nd round or trade down from one of them to stockpile some early Day 3 picks. Poles has said he loves the spot the Bears are in. There is a high probability there will be some blue-chip players available at #9. He may decide this draft will be more about quality than quantity.

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barry_mccockiner
Apr 2, 2024 4:29 pm

Before you all go clicking that downvote button on your guy Barry McCockiner, hear me out: Caleb Williams at 1.01 and Michael Penix at 1.09. Penix has the traits that you all seem to desire in Chicago’s QB1: He doesn’t hold the ball, he doesn’t like to run, and he doesn’t throw interceptions. He hits the back of his drop and then he throws it — a slant here, a check-down there, and occasionally into the ground. He is the polar opposite of Justin Fields. Picking Caleb at 1.01 is inevitable, and I hope that we can all agree that… Read more »

Last edited 15 days ago by barry_mccockiner
timgjerde56
Apr 2, 2024 12:42 pm

If PFF is any good at this with their rankings and simulator, we’re drinking cool aid to think any of the WR will be there. Only once was Turner available in 5 Mocks. Alt in most, but the one where I traded.

Hate to say it, but the only way we get one of the elite receivers is if someone does go get another QB and someone picks Alt. But I don’t think I would want the receiver over Alt.

timgjerde56
Apr 2, 2024 12:33 pm

Just ran three Mock Drafts: The image is actually the second draft with trading 9 for 14. The first and second time through were the same. 1.1 Caleb Williams Graded A+ 1.9 Joe Alt A 1.75 Javon Baker A- 1.122 Xavier Thomas B+ overall A Looks to me like the WR are gone. Ran three more and none were left in those either at 9. The trade happened because it was Newton from Illinois and I thought more picks and let Dexter/Pickens develop. Looking at the draft below. It was a good choice in my opinion. Sweat was still left… Read more »

pff_mock_results-1
Last edited 15 days ago by timgjerde56
BearDownTX
Apr 2, 2024 10:07 am

Odunze or Turner, that is it with #9 (assuming Nabers and MHJ are gone). Other than that you trade down a few spots and still get your guy and get an extra pick to maneuver with. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears traded Herbert for a 5th rounder or so to the Cowboys. They have no money and no RB that is a #1 on the roster. The Bears would then be left with Swift, Johnson, and Homer in the RB room. Even if they go LT at #9 I doubt they trade Jones. HE is cheap, and… Read more »

robmac
robmac
Apr 2, 2024 8:35 am

If the Bears are really getting good or better, might be a while to get this high in the draft – better get someone while you can, like that Rome Ordunze. He figures into long term plans for when Allen retires

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