The Chicago Bears‘ hiring Ben Johnson as head coach was always going to lead to serious changes. There was no predicting what they’d be. It was a safe assumption that he would overhaul everything on offense. Beyond that? It was pure guesswork. It didn’t take long to recognize that Johnson was bringing something new to the organization. That was an almost uncomfortable aggressive streak on 4th down. Johnson was clearly a big believer in the new wave of thinking that it is actually more profitable to take your chance and go for it rather than punting.
It was well-known that he was a math major in college. Johnson is a numbers guy. Analytics would always be something he’d embrace. His belief in the 4th-down mentality actually started a decade ago, when he was with the Miami Dolphins. Unfortunately, head coach Joe Philbin was fired before the team could implement a more aggressive strategy. Then Johnson watched another team pick up the mantle and run with it. That team was the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles, who rode that approach all the way to the franchise’s first Super Bowl.
Ben Johnson saw proof of concept in action.
That Eagles team went for it on 4th down 26 times in 2017, second most in the NFL. They converted 17 of them, which was the most of any team in the league. People had never really seen anything like it before. Going so many times is one thing, but converting so many as well. There is no doubt that the approach helped Philadelphia win several key games, handing them homefield advantage in the playoffs. Then in the Super Bowl, they went for it twice. The first was the now-iconic Philly Special, which scored a TD that put them up 10 going into the second half. The other was a first down conversion to Zach Ertz with 5:39 left in the 4th quarter, keeping the eventual go-ahead touchdown drive alive.
If that weren’t enough, the Eagles proved it works a second time in 2024, then they topped both numbers with 19 conversions on 32 attempts. The data shows that 7 of the past 9 Super Bowl champions had at least 10 4th-down conversions during their seasons.
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| NFL Season | Super Bowl Champion | 4th Down Conversions | NFL Rank (Most Conversions) | 4th Down Attempts | NFL Rank (Most Attempts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Philadelphia Eagles | 17 | Tied-3rd | 26 | 2nd |
| 2018 | New England Patriots | 13 | Tied-12th | 21 | Tied-15th |
| 2019 | Kansas City Chiefs | 15 | Tied-5th | 24 | Tied-10th |
| 2020 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8 | Tied-21st | 14 | 17th |
| 2021 | Los Angeles Rams | 10 | Tied-23rd | 19 | Tied-23rd |
| 2022 | Kansas City Chiefs | 9 | Tied-24th | 12 | Tied-27th |
| 2023 | Kansas City Chiefs | 10 | Tied-22nd | 20 | Tied-21st |
| 2024 | Philadelphia Eagles | 19 | 4th | 32 | 4th |
| 2025 | Seattle Seahawks | 11 | Tied-18th | 12 | 26th |
Johnson always saw it work in Detroit.
During his run as the Lions’ offensive coordinator, the team went for it on 4th down 110 times. They ranked 3rd, 2nd, and 4th in attempts, respectively. They converted 83 of them. Good for 2nd, 2nd, and 3rd in the rankings. Detroit made the playoffs all three years and reached the NFC Championship Game in 2023. Ben Johnson knows this strategy works. He’s seen it. The trick is having the guts to go for it and having an array of good play calls to create as many conversions as possible.
Johnson certainly has the former. He and his staff have been working on the latter. The Bears aren’t quite there yet with execution on 4th down. They were 15th in conversion rate last season. That isn’t bad, but it needs to be better if they want to win tight games against good teams. Improving that number is at the top of Johnson’s list of priorities. It will be interesting to see what develops.
