Weather has been a major factor for the Chicago Bears to start the season. Their opener in Carolina against the Panthers was blisteringly hot at over 90 degrees. By contrast, their division rival, the Minnesota Vikings, enjoyed perfect conditions inside their dome. That is about to change. According to the latest reports, Soldier Field will be slammed by extensive rain all afternoon. Such a reality changes plans for how teams will approach the game. Players must have the right cleats to handle, and they must be careful about what plays they call because a slick football can make execution much tougher.
History says that rain games don’t often favor a pass-heavy approach. Asking quarterbacks to throw a wet football 30-35 times is dicey on its own. You also have wide receivers and tight ends struggling to run their routes with any degree of crispness. It can be done, but the difficulty is significantly greater. That is why the evidence supports a run-heavy attack as the most successful under such conditions, which is why the Bears might’ve gotten a big assist from Mother Nature.
The Chicago Bears saw the pitfalls of this relatively recently.
They played a game in heavy rain at Soldier Field late in 2024. It was in primetime against the Seattle Seahawks. The game was a complete mess on both sides. Chicago had just 66 yards on 18 carries in the game. This excludes scrambles by Caleb Williams. By contrast, Seattle put up 103 yards on 22 carries. Unable to run the ball, Williams was forced to throw and was sacked 7 times. Geno Smith managed to avoid turnovers and did just enough to give the Seahawks a 6-3 victory.
If any team has an advantage going into this type of game, it’s the Chicago Bears. Head coach Ben Johnson has built an identity on running the football. They piled up 291 yards last week in Carolina. A forecast of rain won’t change their game plan much at all. Johnson was going to run it regardless. The addition of rain merely makes it tougher for the Vikings’ defenders to cover the necessary ground, maintain gap integrity, and prevent big plays. Johnson already has proof of concept.
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His Detroit Lions offense beat the Packers in Green Bay in 2024 with a run-heavy focus. His running backs had 118 yards on 28 carries.
Can Minnesota match them?
Running the football has never been a heavy focus for the Vikings under head coach Kevin O’Connell. They were 23rd last season, 19th in 2024, and 29th in 2023. They managed 107 yards on 34 carries last week against the Packers. So they were at least committed to it. One has to imagine they understand the same reality about the weather. Asking your backup quarterback to sling the football around in those conditions is dangerous. They must try to make it easier for him with steady runs and quick passes.
The problem is the Bears, at least on paper, are significantly better at it. Their running game was 3rd in the NFL last season. Johnson’s scheme is devilishly good at creating lanes for the backs. Then you add Williams’ scrambling prowess on top of it? This could get rough for Minnesota’s defense. Their best hope is that Brian Flores’ aggressive style knocks Chicago out of sync, leading to mistakes. If that fails, it will be a long afternoon.
