Outdated movie reference aside, it appears the Chicago Bears are going to run it back one more time. Ryan Pace is still the GM. Matt Nagy is still the head coach. Some changes could be coming to the coaching staff but that is about it. The expectations are pretty clear from George McCaskey and the rest of the team brass. Find a way to get this team over the hump or get ready to update your resumes.

Neither Pace nor Nagy received contract extensions. That means 2021 figures to be their last stand. Suffice to say they are in a major tight spot. The roster needs plenty of work. Several key players are becoming free agents including wide receiver Allen Robinson. The defense is getting older in some key spots and is the most expensive in the NFL. They have limited money and no extra high draft picks.

Yet all of that pales in comparison to the crux of the issue. Chicago still doesn’t have a quarterback. Until they find one, all other issues are secondary. Pace and Nagy showed confidence that they can get this problem sorted out this offseason. Yet if one really stops to look at their options ahead?

It isn’t a picture of optimism.

Chicago Bears truths at quarterback going into this offseason

Truth #1 – Don’t get your hopes up for Deshaun Watson or Dak Prescott

Those two are by far the biggest names teams will be looking at on the trade and free agent markets respectively. Both are Pro Bowlers. Both are in their physical primes. They also played the best football of their respective careers this season. Prescott of course got hurt but he was on fire before that. Watson had over 4,800 yards and 33 TDs with mostly scrubs at wide receiver. These guys are legitimate stars who can change the fortunes of a franchise overnight.

Dreaming about them is easy for Bears fans. Acquiring them on the other hand? Next to impossible. Prescott is virtually guaranteed to either receive a long-term extension from Dallas this offseason or get the franchise tag for the second time. Either way, Jerry Jones isn’t in the habit of letting good quarterbacks walk. As for Watson? There is a real chance he could force his way out of Houston but the cost would be astronomical for any team seeking his services.

For the Bears, there is an added problem though. Watson has a no-trade clause in his contract. This means he’d have to waive it to facilitate a deal. In other words, he can control where he ends up going. Why would he want to come to Chicago? Their setup isn’t exactly great. Average offensive line. Their best wide receiver approaching free agency. A head coach and GM on the hot seat. Not exactly the best bait.

Truth #2 – No other veteran will truly move the needle

After Watson and Prescott, the remaining options don’t exactly look great. Matthew Stafford is the best of the bunch who might be available. He’s 32 and still playing top-shelf football. Unfortunately, he’s also playing for the division rival Detroit Lions. There is no way they would ever consider trading him to Chicago. Matt Ryan? He would be more doable but his contract is beyond bloated and he also turns 36 this May.

Derek Carr has an affordable contract and is coming off the best season of his career. Compensation wouldn’t be outlandish. Yet the Las Vegas Raiders QB was surrounded by such talk for months in 2020 and nothing came of it. One shouldn’t bet on anything changing since he’s not their problem. Nevermind the fact he seems to have a hard time winning big games.

Carson Wentz has ties to the Chicago Bears through QBs coach John DeFilippo but his contract is an albatross and it doesn’t seem like Philadelphia is inclined to trade him anyway. To say nothing of his ugly 2020 season. Then there is Sam Darnold. The former 1st round pick has plenty of talent and is only 23. He’s also very erratic, has suffered some injuries, and isn’t known for consistency. The Bears just left that behind with Trubisky.

Truth #3 – Their draft position is less than ideal

This is a cold reality. Teams that need a quarterback but are picking in the 20s or later sit in a No-Mans-Land. Don’t believe it? Since 2000, a total of 13 quarterbacks were taken in the 1st round between picks 20 and 32. Only two of them managed to emerge as genuine stars in the NFL. One was Aaron Rodgers (24th in 2005) and the other was Lamar Jackson (32nd in 2018).

Obviously, the top 5 is where any team would want to be in order to land a difference-maker at quarterback. Barring that, the sweet spot before the drop-off in hit rate for the position tends to be between #6 and #12. That area has produced the likes of Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Tannehill, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, and Justin Herbert. A pretty strong group of names.

What would it cost for the Bears to move into that range? One recent example came in 2019. The Pittsburgh Steelers traded up from #20 to 10th overall to select linebacker Devin Bush. It cost them both their 2nd and 3rd round picks that year. It cost the Texans a future 1st round pick to move up from 25th overall in 2017 to 12th to select Watson. Kansas City gave up a 3rd and future 1st in that same draft to move up to 10th for Mahomes. Translation? If Pace wants to move up, it’ll be expensive and dangerous.

Truth #4 – Matt Nagy can’t be trusted anyway

It’s painfully obvious by now that Nagy’s aptitude for offense was considerably overblown when he was hired. His schemes are complicated and oftentimes nonsensical. It puts a ridiculous amount of pressure on the quarterback to do everything and doesn’t design plays around the talent available. He’s too in love with fancy play-calls rather than sensible ones, has no feel for game situations, and is perplexing in his usage of personnel.

Trubisky was only effective when Nagy had to adjust the offense to something similar to Green Bay and Los Angeles rather than what he wanted. Nick Foles was even worse. It feels like the only one who could make such a complex and rigid system work is Peyton Manning and he’s not walking through those doors. Yet the Chicago Bears are going to entrust a rookie QB to this guy?

The harsh truth is unless he hires an actual proven offensive coordinator to run the show, it won’t matter who they pick at quarterback. The odds of Nagy getting the most out of them aren’t going to be great. In other words, the Chicago Bears either need to see common sense or they need a miracle.

Neither seems forthcoming.