Wednesday, May 29, 2024

Using Pure Analytics To Predict Chicago Bears Draft Sleepers

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Everybody has their opinion on who the Chicago Bears should target in this 2023 draft. That is part of what makes the entire process fun. Weighing those opinions against each other and seeing if a consensus can be built. GM Ryan Poles, though, doesn’t strictly go by opinion. He involves analytics in his approach too. That is where everything is kept strictly to the numbers. That means every player must reach certain thresholds in height, weight, and athletic prowess. It creates a certain prototype for every position.

In the interest of curiosity, I decided to do some numbers-crunching. I weighed the averages of every key physical category for every major Bears position of need going into the draft. Then I went to see if this draft class would spit out a potentially overlooked prospect that fits that exact profile. It didn’t disappoint.

The numbers point to some interesting Chicago Bears options.

Offensive tackle
  • Height: 6’5
  • Weight: 310 lbs
  • 40-time: 5.04 seconds
  • Vertical: 29.5 inches
  • Shuttle: 4.74 seconds
  • Arm length: 34 inches

Candidate: Blake Freeland (BYU)

In terms of size, it doesn’t get much better. Freeland is 6’8 with 34-inch arms. His sub-5.0 in the 40 and 37-inch vertical showcase his explosiveness as an athlete. A team captain at BYU, he’s known for being violent and aggressive both in pass protection and as a run blocker. His problem stems from the same issue as Braxton Jones. He lacks the power to anchor or drive defenders off the ball. Such issues can be corrected with weight room work. The building blocks are there for a solid player.

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Wide receiver

  • Height: 6’2
  • Weight: 208.5 lbs
  • 40-time: 4.42 seconds
  • Three-cone: 6.99 seconds

Candidate: Bryce Ford-Wheaton (West Virginia)

It’s clear Poles prefers his receivers to be at least 6’0 tall, 200 lbs, and boasting speed in the 4.4 range. Those are typical traits top NFL receivers seem to have. Another sign the man knows how to profile. Ford-Wheaton has 6’4 size, long arms, and 4.3 speed. He is dangerous when given a free vertical release. Like many bigger receivers, he’s not the best route runner. His foot quickness isn’t there and it allows cornerbacks to bottle him near the line of scrimmage. His floor is that of a jump ball specialist who can help in the red zone.

Edge rusher

  • Height: 6’4
  • Weight: 260 lbs
  • 40-time: 4.77 seconds
  • Vertical: 34 inches
  • Three-cone: 7.33 seconds
  • Arm length: 33 inches

Candidate: YaYa Diaby (Louisville)

A one-year wonder that broke out for the Cardinals with nine sacks and 14 tackles for a loss in 2022. He has the 263-lbs weight and 34-inch arms needed for a 4-3 defensive end. He also has plenty of power in that frame, delivering a solid bull rush and possessing the burst necessary to threaten the edge. All of his issues stem from pass rush fundamental. He has no versatile array of moves. There is no creativity. That will allow veteran tackles to handle him easily. If he can diversify his approach, there is starter potential in him.

Defensive tackle

  • Height: 6’4
  • Weight: 310 lbs
  • 40-time: 5.06 seconds
  • Vertical: 29 inches
  • Three-cone: 7.72
  • Arm length: 33 inches

Candidate: Keeanu Benton (Wisconsin)

Benton never stood out statistically for the Badgers but there were signs of considerable growth last year with 4.5 sacks and 10 tackles for a loss. Then he carried that progress into the Senior Bowl, where he was one of the best defensive tackles at the event. His 6’4, 309-lbs frame carries tons of power in it, allowing him to control gaps as a run blocker. At worst, he can be a dependable nose tackle. If he improves his snap anticipation, there might be some upside as an interior pass rusher.

Cornerback

  • Height: 6’1
  • Weight: 194 lbs
  • 40-time: 4.49 seconds
  • Vertical: 37.5 inches

Candidate: Riley Moss (Iowa)

Size, length, athleticism, and ball skills. Those are the traits the Chicago Bears look for in their cornerbacks. There are few who fit the profile better than Moss. He’s literally 6’1, 194 with 4.45 speed. He also finished with 11 interceptions, two forced fumbles, and three defensive touchdowns for Iowa. When talking about a corner that is tailor-made for a Tampa-2 defense, Moss checks the boxes. He feels like yet another Hawkeye that will go later than he should.

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Martin Melhus
Martin Melhus
Apr 11, 2023 2:03 pm

I like your thinking Garnet Eefx, maybe we could meet up. That said, I’ll bring condoms

Garnet Eefx
Garnet Eefx
Apr 11, 2023 12:04 pm

Those are the traits the Chicago Bears look for in their cornerbacks. There are few who fit the profile better than Moss. He’s literally 6’1, 194 with 4.45 speed. He also finished with 11 interceptions, two forced fumbles, and three defensive touchdowns for Iowa. When talking about a corner that is tailor-made for a Tampa-2 defense, Moss checks the boxes. He feels like yet another Hawkeye that will go later than he should.sd

Garnet Eefx
Garnet Eefx
Apr 11, 2023 12:04 pm

Size, length, athleticism, and ball skills. Those are the traits the Chicago Bears look for in their cornerbacks. There are few who fit the profile better than Moss. He’s literally 6’1, 194 with 4.45 speed. He also finished with 11 interceptions, two forced fumbles, and three defensive touchdowns for Iowa. When talking about a corner that is tailor-made for a Tampa-2 defense, Moss checks the boxes. He feels like yet another Hawkeye that will go later than he should.

Garnet Eefx
Garnet Eefx
Apr 11, 2023 12:04 pm

hello

Payton
Payton
Apr 11, 2023 10:14 am

WR from West Virginia…. Nah I’m good.

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