Caleb Williams was terrific in 2025. He set the Chicago Bears record with 3,941 passing yards, accounted for 30 touchdowns, and led seven 4th quarter comebacks. It is one of the best seasons any signal-caller has ever had for this franchise. However, it wasn’t perfect. Efficiency issues continue to follow him, most notably with his completion percentage. The 58.1% was the worst in the NFL, and a big reason why the Bears offense often struggled to find a rhythm early in games. Most continue to circle that stat as the one that must improve before you can truly start calling Williams a genuine star.
There is another that better explains a core issue with the young quarterback that people haven’t touched on. It is something called TW%, or Tight Window Percentage. NFL Next Gen Stats describes it as follows.
“The percentage of passes where the targeted receiver has less than 1 yard of separation when the pass arrives.”
In other words, the higher the percentage, the more the quarterback was willing to throw the ball into tight coverage. Some may see this as reckless. In reality, the best quarterbacks in the NFL have some of the highest numbers in the league. That is because you can’t beat great teams without being able to throw into tight windows. Reigning MVP Matthew Stafford was second in the league with 18.6%. Runner-up Drake Maye was fourth at 17.3%.
Williams was dead last at 10.6%.
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Caleb Williams must be willing to test those windows a little more.
The obvious reasoning behind this low percentage is that the quarterback doesn’t want to throw interceptions. His seven in 2025 was among the best in the league. Williams’ desire to protect the football is a good thing. However, it does rob his team of some key scoring opportunities from time to time. This goes back to what head coach Ben Johnson mentioned about ball placement. Improving that is essential to helping run after the catch opportunities, but it’s also key to hitting more tight window throws.
This is not to say Williams has to drastically bump up that number. Recent history says a quarterback should hover somewhere around 12.4%. That is the average of the last seven Super Bowl champions. Sam Darnold was 13.6%. Put simply, Williams doesn’t have to erase his desire to avoid turnovers, but he must be willing to test tight windows a little more often. He has the arm talent to do this. His iconic throw to D.J. Moore against the Packers last December proves this.
Bears history backs up this assertion.
If you go back to the most recent franchise championships, you’ll find they were defined by some critical, tight-window passes. In 1985, there was Jim McMahon’s first touchdown pass to Dennis McKinnon in the divisional round to break the game open against the New York Giants. In 1963, it was Billy Wade threading a pass to Mike Ditka for 63 yards to set up a field goal that tied the game. That tie gave Chicago the crucial edge over the Green Bay Packers to win the Western Conference, catapulting them to the championship game.
Caleb Williams is better than both of those players. He is capable of making any throw you can fathom in the NFL. The challenge is teaching him when to take calculated risks. Part of it likely comes from two factors. Trust in the player he’s throwing to and the belief that the defense can bail him out if he happens to throw an interception. Given how bad the Bears defense was last year and how many drops the wide receivers had, you can understand some of the hesitation. Even so, he must start testing those windows.
