Football is a team game. That has remained true since its founding. However, the modern era has concentrated much of that success onto the quarterback position. It really has become a league of haves and have-nots. For the longest time, the Chicago Bears were squarely in the have-not bracket. As a result, they were forced to rely on great defense and strong running games to even give themselves a chance. All while their biggest rivals seemed to keep getting lucky at the position. That may have finally changed with the arrival of Caleb Williams.
His 2025 season was a revelation to many. It was confirmation that he was indeed good enough to overcome the franchise’s seeming inability to cultivate the position. He has the talent, the work ethic, and the steely determination. After leading the Bears to their best finish in seven years, expectations are raised for 2026. So let’s break down the numbers, the projections, and the predictions.
Caleb Williams MVP odds: +1300
Only one player in Bears history has won the league MVP. That, of course, was Walter Payton in 1977. Since then, nobody else has really come close. A big reason for that is that the award has basically been relegated to the best quarterbacks. Obviously, Chicago hasn’t been a hotbed for that position in previous decades. Caleb Williams represents the first player at the position this team has fielded who has the capability to claim the honor. It comes down to whether he can produce at a high enough level.
While +1300 odds may sound like a lot, it actually isn’t. Matt Ryan was +7500 in 2016. Cam Newton was +5200 in 2015. Williams is just as talented as those two were, if not more so. There are certain thresholds that must be met to have a realistic shot. We’re talking around 4500 or more total yards, 35+ touchdowns, 10 or fewer interceptions, and at least 12 wins.
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| NFL Season | MVP Winner | Team Wins | Passing Stats | Rushing / Total Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Matthew Stafford | 12 wins (12–5) | 4,707 Yds | 46 TD | 8 INT | 109.2 Rating | 1 Rush Yd | 0 Rush TD |
| 2024 | Josh Allen | 13 wins (13–4) | 3,731 Yds | 28 TD | 6 INT | 101.4 Rating | 531 Rush Yds | 12 Rush TD | 1 Rec TD |
| 2023 | Lamar Jackson | 13 wins (13–4) | 3,678 Yds | 24 TD | 7 INT | 102.7 Rating | 821 Rush Yds | 5 Rush TD |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes | 14 wins (14–3) | 5,250 Yds | 41 TD | 12 INT | 105.2 Rating | 358 Rush Yds | 4 Rush TD |
| 2021 | Aaron Rodgers | 13 wins (13–4) | 4,115 Yds | 37 TD | 4 INT | 111.9 Rating | 101 Rush Yds | 3 Rush TD |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers | 13 wins (13–3) | 4,299 Yds | 48 TD | 5 INT | 121.5 Rating | 149 Rush Yds | 3 Rush TD |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson | 14 wins (14–2) | 3,127 Yds | 36 TD | 6 INT | 113.3 Rating | 1,206 Rush Yds | 7 Rush TD |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | 12 wins (12–4) | 5,097 Yds | 50 TD | 12 INT | 113.8 Rating | 272 Rush Yds | 2 Rush TD |
| 2017 | Tom Brady | 13 wins (13–3) | 4,577 Yds | 32 TD | 8 INT | 102.8 Rating | 28 Rush Yds | 0 Rush TD |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan | 11 wins (11–5) | 4,944 Yds | 38 TD | 7 INT | 117.1 Rating | 117 Rush Yds | 0 Rush TD |
Stat projections: 4,100 yards, 29 touchdowns, 9 interceptions
Just 59 yards. That is how close Williams came to finally being the one to claim that elusive prize of being the first 4,000-yard passer in Bears history. Others have tried. Erik Kramer came close in 1995. Jay Cutler probably would’ve gotten it in 2014 if he hadn’t been benched. Williams managed to come closer than all of them despite being in a new offense that had him throw almost the exact same number of passes as his rookie season. Finding that extra 59 yards shouldn’t be too difficult.
His touchdown-to-interception ratio will stay mostly the same. Williams is good at keeping his mistakes low while finding the end zone around three times as much. Unfortunately, the quarterback will come up just one touchdown short of the other milestone no Bears quarterback has reached of 30. On the flip side, he will become the first to ever have back-to-back seasons with fewer than 10 interceptions when starting every game. That might be even more impressive.
Milestone: Will reach 65% completion percentage
Any time the conversation of Caleb Williams comes up in quarterback debates, critics immediately jump to the same thing. His completion percentage was horrible. The 58.1% number was the worst among starting quarterbacks in the league. Nobody can be in the top 10 conversation with that hanging over his head. As always, the debate is more nuanced than, “Williams is just bad.” He had the most throwaways of any quarterback in the league (40) and also suffered from the 5th-most dropped passes (29).
All of that contributed to his skewed number. Williams certainly sounded annoyed by the topic when asked about it. He seems to think it’s a non-issue and has promised to improve the percentage this year. Not because he feels the need to, mind you. Just to get people to stop talking about it. In this case, he is likely to get close to the league average of 65%. This will lead to considerably greater efficiency throughout the entire offense, which will lead to the next part.
Bold prediction: Leads the #1 offense in the NFL
The Bears were 6th overall in total offense that last. That was with it being the first year of a new system under Ben Johnson. It isn’t crazy to think the entire unit will take a big step forward this season. After all, we saw it happen with the Detroit Lions. Think about this. Chicago hasn’t seen a #1 offense since 1956, a span of 70 years. That was when the NFL had only 12 teams. Since then, it’s been mostly a rough watch. Williams represents the best quarterback they’ve had in ages. He already showed he could put up yards last year. They had 6,277 for the season. Los Angeles, which ranked #1, finished with 6,709. The Bears don’t have too far to climb.
