One thing is certain in the minds of experts. The Chicago Bears are going to get a quarterback in the draft. Everything they’ve done up to this point says so. They signed Andy Dalton to just a one-year deal. Nick Foles remains a possibility to be traded. Both GM Ryan Pace and head coach Matt Nagy have hinted that adding a young quarterback is definitely on their minds.
To say nothing of the information piling up about them scouting guys left and right with single-minded relentlessness. This is a team operating like one that plans to draft a QB. It’s a matter of when and how they do it. That question continues to spark spirited debates among fans and experts. Everybody has a theory. So which one holds the most validity?
Here are five potential outcomes for the Bears, ranked from least likely to most likely, and who they could end up targeting in each case.
Chicago Bears QB approaches based on likelihood
#5: A Day 3 developmental project
Basically one could call this the “All-in on Dalton” method. The Bears would be making it clear that Dalton is their guy and all of their focus is on making him a success in 2021. Picking a quarterback on the third and final day of the draft is much more about adding depth and a potential long-term backup than seeking their starter of the future. Sure there are exceptions but teams never take QBs that late presuming they’re going to land a franchise guy.
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Likely option if they go this route? Feleipe Franks.
Talk about a quarterback who had a unique college career. He looked like he had a bright future at Florida after a promising 2018 season. Then he got injured in 2019 and lost his job to Kyle Trask. Franks transferred to Arkansas and managed to play well. So why him? Well, he’s 6’6, boasts a strong arm, solid accuracy, and is one of the better athletes at his position in the class. If anybody can make the jump from Day 3 to starter? It’s him.
#4: Taking one at #20 overall
Here’s the thing. Nobody can predict the draft. Crazy things happen all the time. The quarterback position is no exception to this. Players who are expected to go early can sometimes fall for one reason or another. Aaron Rodgers fell to #24 in 2005. Deshaun Watson fell to #12. Jackson fell to #32 and so on. Is it so crazy to think one of the top five in this class can slip to #20? No. Just improbable. Three of them will be gone in the first three picks. That means one of the final two would have to get through a list of teams that include Denver, New England, and Washington who all need quarterbacks. Possible? Yes. Probable? No way.
Likely option if they go this route? Trey Lance.
In terms of players who represent the most risk? That has to be Lance. There is no denying the kid is talented. He has size, strength, a good arm, and outstanding mobility. The problem is he only threw 318 total passes at North Dakota State and all of them were against FCS competition. Lance played just one game last year due to the pandemic. Teams tend to shy away from gambling higher picks on a player like that. There are exceptions, but if somebody is going to fall it’ll be him.
#3: Trading into the top 10
This may shock some people given the rampant rumors floating around lately. The Chicago Bears brass has studied each of the top five quarterbacks expected to go in the 1st round. Most experts don’t believe any of them will make it out of the top 10 picks. Brag Biggs himself even said the Bears are seriously considering a move up. Why is this so low? Namely because the team doesn’t have the ammunition and also because the QB they truly covet won’t be there.
Likely option if they go this route? Justin Fields.
People talk about Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson a ton. Yet Fields has an argument for being the most talented overall quarterback in this class. He’s big, fast, and boasts an arm that can deliver the ball with velocity. His accuracy stands out consistently and he proved he could play with pain too. Nagy was spotted at his pro day, don’t forget. It wouldn’t be hard to imagine the Bears head coach sees him as a Patrick Mahomes-type who could sit behind Dalton for a year and be ready to dominate in 2022. Sadly people now think Fields comes off the board at the #3 pick.
#2: Trading back into the 1st round
There is more than one way to make a splash in the 1st round. Trading up is the most popular method. However, a few teams have utilized an alternative in recent years that have yielded reasonable results. That is the moving up from the 2nd round back into the 1st round. Minnesota did it with Teddy Bridgewater in 2014 and the Baltimore Ravens did it with Lamar Jackson in 2018. It has multiple benefits. First? The team is able to use their original 1st round pick on another position of need. Second? The cost of jumping back into the 1st is considerably cheaper than moving into the top 10. Baltimore spent their 4th round pick and a future 2nd to secure #32 three years ago.
Likely option if they go this route? Davis Mills.
One of the fastest risers in the 2021 quarterback class is Mills. A five-star recruit out of high school, he showed a ton of flashes at Stanford. However, some knee problems and the onset of the pandemic ruined his chances to shine there. He only started 11 games in total. So the kid is raw by any stretch of the imagination. At the same time, he has the size and a live arm that produced some “wow” throws last season. If given a chance to further polish his game, he could be a hidden gem.
#1: A Day 2 developmental project
When it comes to quarterback moves, fans always love the sexy approach. That bold pick in the 1st round. Sometimes though the board just doesn’t cooperate. A team must be sensible and look to see if they can find value a bit later in the draft. That means grabbing somebody on the second day. Most likely in the 2nd round. Chicago Bears fans may not like that. Especially given the results from recent 2nd rounders like Christian Hackenberg, DeShone Kizer, and Drew Lock. Yet it has proven a viable alternative in the past. One the team seems prepared to exploit since they need to retain that 1st rounder for a player who can help them win this year.
Likely option if they go this route? Kyle Trask.
People love to downplay Trask because he doesn’t boast an overly strong arm and isn’t much of a runner. They don’t talk enough about how good he was at Florida. He threw 68 touchdowns and just 15 interceptions over a span of 24 games in 2019 and 2020. Against the best conference in college football. Despite the arm questions he has a capable deep ball, an aggressive mentality, and operates well from the pocket. If anybody will appeal to Nagy and this staff at the 52nd pick, it will be him.
