It isn’t at all surprising that the conversations surrounding the Chicago Bears leading up to tonight’s big game against the Philadelphia Eagles were about the quarterbacks. Caleb Williams is out with a hamstring problem. That has put pressure on Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent to try to carry the load in his absence. Can they do it, or is the gulf in ability just too wide? Head coach Ben Johnson and teammates all sound confident that the offense will function well until Williams returns. Those two quarterbacks know the system and are well-prepared.
In truth, the amount of success this team has over the next three or four games won’t hinge primarily on how the backups play. This will be a stretch defined by the Bears’ defense. Dennis Allen’s group has been a second-class citizen for the most part since last year, taking a backseat to Johnson’s offense. Part of that is because the unit hasn’t always been good. Expectations for it weren’t high coming into this season.
Well, if they want to win this game and stay in the NFC North hunt, they can’t afford to stay in that backseat.
The Chicago Bears’ defense will determine how the next month goes.
One thing you have to assume about backup quarterbacks is that they aren’t likely to put up a massive amount of points, regardless of whether a great supporting cast surrounds them. Maybe they will, but you can’t count on it. Historically, the teams that survive such stretches are the ones that get strong outings from their defenses. After crunching some data, teams with backup quarterbacks won about 85% of their games when their defense allowed 14 points. That steadily dipped to 68% at 17 and 48% at 20.
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In other words, backups can be trusted to put up around 18-19 points on average per game. The Chicago Bears gave up that many or fewer in seven games last season. They gave up 24 or more in 10 games. This year, they’ve allowed 37 in one and 9 in the other. It is hard to tell which version of the defense we’ll get from week to week. They held Philadelphia to 15 in the meeting last year. Can they pull it off a second time? They may have to if they want any hope of pulling the upset.
Keenum can certainly make life easier.
The more points he scores, the better the Bears’ odds. Unfortunately, this Eagles defense hasn’t been the most giving in that department. They allowed 22 and 20 points, respectively, in their first two games. The good news is that Jayden Daniels and Cam Ward have been struggling since last year. If they can put up at least 20 on Philadelphia, Keenum can as well. For the defense, it feels like 20 is a reasonable objective to shoot for. They’ve shown they can play good football when they limit the mental mistakes.
What they’ll need is a strong performance from the secondary. If they let DeVonta Smith go off, it will be a long night. Everything starts at the line of scrimmage. Jalen Hurts has been sacked 6 times this year. He’s far more vulnerable than he’s been in a long time. The Bears are 5th in the NFL in pressure rate. They’re at home with a loud crowd behind them. This has to be a game and a moment they seize.
