Tuesday, December 3, 2024

Proof The Caleb Williams Vs. Jayden Daniels Debate Is Pointless

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One month into the season, experts have seen enough. The Chicago Bears got it wrong at quarterback yet again. They took Caleb Williams when they could’ve had Jayden Daniels. Washington’s #2 overall pick has completed 82% of his passes for 897 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. He also has 218 yards rushing and four touchdowns. The Heisman winner is the heavy favorite for Rookie of the Year. Williams, meanwhile, has completed 61% of his passes for 787 yards, three touchdowns, and four interceptions.

People have seen all they need to see. It’s a repeat of last year. The #2 overall pick is superior to #1. There is no possibility at all that a young quarterback might be getting off to a slow start while another gets hot, right? In truth, plenty of evidence suggests the final outcome is far from certain between these two. Since implementing the current draft setup, quarterbacks have gone #1 and #2 eight times, not including this year.

Here is who they are, their rookie year passer ratings, and their career results.

1993:

  • #1 pick – Drew Bledsoe – 65.0 passer rating
  • #2 pick – Rick Mirer – 67.0 passer rating

Result: Bledsoe went to four Pro Bowls and two Super Bowls and won a title. Mirer became a backup after four seasons

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1998:

  • #1 pick – Peyton Manning – 71.2 passer rating
  • #2 pick – Ryan Leaf – 39.0 passer rating

Result: Manning became one of the greatest of all time. Leaf is still considered the greatest bust ever.

1999:

  • #1 pick – Tim Couch – 73.2 passer rating
  • #2 pick – Donovan McNabb – 60.1 passer rating

Result: Couch never reached his full potential, being mediocre and injury-prone. McNabb went to six Pro Bowls and reached a Super Bowl.

2012:
  • #1 pick – Andrew Luck – 76.5 passer rating
  • #2 pick – Robert Griffin III – 102.4 passer rating

Result: Luck made four Pro Bowls but retired early due to injuries. Griffin III won Rookie of the Year was saw his career ruined by injuries.

2015:

  • #1 pick – Jameis Winston – 84.2 passer rating
  • #2 pick – Marcus Mariota – 91.5 passer rating

Result: Neither lived up to their potential. Winston did make a Pro Bowl and throw for 5,000 yards one year. Mariota was good in 2016 and won a playoff game in 2017 but fell off quickly after that.

2016:

  • #1 pick – Jared Goff – 63.6 passer rating
  • #2 pick – Carson Wentz – 79.3 passer rating

Result: Wentz was an MVP hopeful in 2017, but injuries and erratic play saw him eventually relegated to backup. Goff is a three-time Pro Bowler who just went to his second NFC championship game.

2021:

  • #1 pick – Trevor Lawrence – 71.9 passer rating
  • #2 pick – Zach Wilson – 69.7 passer rating

Result: Lawrence went to a Pro Bowl and won a playoff game but has largely underachieved. Wilson was a mess in New York and is now a backup in Denver.

2023:

  • #1 pick – Bryce Young – 73.7 passer rating
  • #2 pick – C.J. Stroud – 100.8 passer rating

Result: Young lasted only 18 games before getting benched. Stroud won Rookie of the Year and a playoff game. He’s off to another strong start.

Caleb Williams has no reason to focus on Daniels.

Outside of their meeting later this year and possible playoff matchups in the future, their careers will have little to do with each other. Daniels getting off to a great start has no bearing on Williams’ situation. It is worth mentioning that Washington’s quarterback has taken on some pretty subpar defenses to start the season. Only one was ranked in the top 15, and it happened to be the one against which Daniels had his worst game. Meanwhile, Williams has faced the #1 defense, #5 defense, #32 defense, and #31 defense. It isn’t a coincidence that his recent progress came in the past two weeks.

The schedule often plays a big part in how rookies perform to start a season. Caleb Williams drew the short straw on that front. He seems to have gathered himself after a tough start. This doesn’t mean he’s going to overtake Daniels this year. His hot start might be all he needs to claim Rookie of the Year. However, it is also evident Williams is gaining a strong grasp of how to play quarterback in the traditional sense. His pre-snap recognition and pocket management have both looked better and better.

Let things play out before determining a young man’s career.

7 COMMENTS

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Dr. Melhus
Oct 5, 2024 11:39 pm

Newspaper tycoon telegraphed (when telegrams were expensive) famous astronomer Percival Lowell (discoverer of Pluto) the following:
“Is there life on Mars? Return telegraph 1000 words prepaid.”

Lowell sent back “Nobody knows,” repeated 500 times.

Way too early to tell who will have the better career, or if they both have great or mediocre careers. Article is pretty accurate, except that Ryan Leaf isn’t as big of a bust as JaMarcus Russell was at QB, as Russell was a #1 pick, and didn’t even try to get better once he got paid.

Dr. Steven Sallie
Dr. Steven Sallie
Oct 5, 2024 8:44 pm

More in the States than any other place on our dying planet. A just drew one out, thanks for your participation.

David
Oct 5, 2024 8:42 pm

I could care less if Daniels is slightly better than Williams. As long as Williams is good for the Bears I don’t look at the woulda/ coulda/ shoulda’s. Also a QBs personality plays an enourmous role for what team they play for, the city they live in, and the local media and fan base. Every QB wouldn’t fit well for Chicago and vice versa. I understand that comparisons are just the nature of the beast and it’s the easiest way to judge and create opinions, but nobody can tell me that say, for example, that Mahomes would have come to… Read more »

David
Oct 5, 2024 8:34 pm

We don’t have hyenas in America @Dr. Steven Sallie

Dr. Steven Sallie
Dr. Steven Sallie
Oct 5, 2024 8:23 pm

Then, if Murray outperforms Caleb and the Bears lose to Arizona, perhaps those ugly male hyenas will consider the suicide route by confronting us tenacious and wiser male lions or apologize for their errors in judgement and pressures to conform to pure nonsense. It would be in the Bears’ best interests, for sure.

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