One look at the stat line and people will tell you Caleb Williams is having a terrible season. That, of course, is false. He’s been tremendous most of the year, orchestrating the Chicago Bears offense to a level few have seen. The primary issue for many is his low touchdown total. He only has 8 this season. Part of that is because he missed 3 games with a hamstring injury. Another part is because the Bears frequently run the ball in goal-to-go situations. They have 17 rushing touchdowns this season. That is tied for the most in the NFL.
There is also something else that has impacted Williams in ways people haven’t noticed. Through the first nine games of the season, no team has been blitzed more than the Bears. Frankly, it’s not even close. Chicago sits at 45.8% of their dropbacks being blitzed. The next closest is Buffalo at 37.9%. The Bears have faced the five most blitz-heavy teams in the NFL already this season. In fact, they faced four of them just in the past six weeks. That number is likely to stay high as they face New Orleans next week, which ranks 8th in blitz rate.
What Caleb Williams is experiencing is far beyond normal.
Most quarterbacks are blitzed around 28-32% of the time in a given season. That obviously fluctuates from time to time, depending on the schedule. Make no mistake. What Williams is seeing right now is a significant outlier. All told, he’s been blitzed 128 times this season. That ranks 4th in the entire NFL. Again, keep in mind that Williams missed 3 games. It is a pretty staggering number. Is this because opponents feel he is vulnerable to the blitz?
Maybe partially. Williams has 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions when blitzed this season. However, it is worth noting that 3 of those interceptions came against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. Prior to that, he had 3 touchdowns and just 1 interception. He was handling the blitz pretty well. Other stats back this up.
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Caleb Williams is 8th in the NFL in adjusted completion percentage, which removes throwaways, at 77.9%. That is how many of his throws have been deemed on target. In addition, he is tied for 7th in the league with 5 dropped passes. Again, that is keeping in mind that everybody ranked ahead of him has started 8 or 9 games. Of his 110 passes against the blitz, only 4 were deemed turnover-worthy.
It has been a trial by fire.
Williams has faced some of the best blitzing coaches in the league, including Brian Florez and Todd Bowles. Few are better in recent memory at imagining different ways to bring pressure. While it can be such a nightmare to deal with, it’s also something else: a great education. The more times Williams faces these blitzes, the less and less unnerved he’ll be by them. He’ll start noticing the signs more and more. That should lead to increased opportunities to exploit them.
If the Bears are smart, they will be spending the bye week finding ways to bake more blitz-beating plays into their system. Head coach Ben Johnson is not stupid. He knows what’s coming. There is no question he will be spending a lot of time preparing for that rematch against Minnesota, as well as other blitz-happy teams like Green Bay and Buffalo. Presuming this team gets to the playoffs, they’ll be battle-tested.
