Mitch Trubisky is caught in a difficult age for quarterbacks. One could say the position is harder to play and harder to learn than ever before. Yet the demand to play well at it quickly has ramped up to extreme levels. Fans and media expect instant success, even if that’s not entirely feasible. Not every young quarterback is equipped to meet those demands.
Does this mean those who fail should just be benched or cut outright? If others can grasp on quickly and he can’t, that means he’ll never be good, right? Of course not. That’s not how learning works. Helen Jones, a former educator, had a great line about this. “Experienced educators know that all children can learn, but at very different rates, with different amounts of retention and with different skills to use and apply what they have learned.”
It’s no different with quarterbacks or any football player for that matter. Just because one may not get it quickly doesn’t mean he’ll never get it. He’s merely taking a bit longer. There are plenty of reasons to explain this too. Personality and off-the-field situations are possibilities. Then there’s also the amount of education he got prior to reaching the new level. This may help explain Trubisky’s current state.
Mitch Trubisky slow start can be attributed to low passing totals
Former World Series champion manager Terry Francona believed Michael Jordan could’ve played professional baseball. The talent wasn’t the problem with him. It was baseball rhythm and experience.
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“One of the things that I learned about Michael is that if you tell him no, he will find a way to make you say yes. I tell people all of the time if he was willing to give it 2,000 at-bats (about four minor league seasons), he would have found his way to the major leagues.”
Jordan only managed just over 400 at-bats before returning to basketball. So people never got a chance to find out. It got me to wondering if football has a similarity in regards to how quickly quarterbacks play well in the NFL. Does their more immediate success have something to do with how many passes they threw in college?
I dug into the history of drafted quarterbacks going back to 1978. This was the year the passing game was opening up considerably by NFL rule changes. Then I determined which QBs had immediate success in their first or second seasons and those who took longer. What constitutes success?
In this instance, I set the line on their first starting season where they delivered a passer rating of at least 88 for the season. Those who accomplished the feat inside the first two years land on the first list and those who did so after land on the second. Then to expand on the data, I included how many total passes each player threw in college to see if the number may have a correlation to that early success.
The final requirement is the quarterback must have started by their second season in the league at the latest. The results were fascinating.
Individual Success in Years 1 or 2
- Dan Marino: 1,204
- Boomer Esiason: 850
- Peyton Manning: 1,381
- Daunte Culpepper: 1,097
- Carson Palmer: 1,569
- Ben Roethlisberger: 1,304
- Derek Anderson: 1,515
- Matt Ryan: 1,347
- Joe Flacco: 938
- Matthew Stafford: 987
- Josh Freeman: 1,151
- Cam Newton: 628
- Andrew Luck: 1,064
- Robert Griffin III: 1,192
- Nick Foles: 1,404
- Russell Wilson: 1,489
- Teddy Bridgewater: 1,142
- Blake Bortles: 891
- Derek Carr: 1,630
- Marcus Mariota: 1,167
- Jared Goff: 1,568
- Carson Wentz: 612
- Deshaun Watson: 1,207
- Patrick Mahomes: 1,349
Individual Success after Years 1 or 2
- Phil Simms: 836
- Joe Montana: 515
- Neil Lomax: 1,606
- Jim Kelly: 676
- John Elway: 1,246
- Jim Everett: 965
- Vinny Testaverde: 674
- Steve Beuerlein: 850
- Chris Chandler: 597
- Troy Aikman: 694
- Brett Favre: 1,169
- Drew Bledsoe: 979
- Brian Griese: 516
- Donovan McNabb: 938
- Tom Brady: 638
- Michael Vick: 343
- Drew Brees: 1,678
- Eli Manning: 1,363
- Alex Smith: 587
- Ryan Tannehill: 774
- Jameis Winston: 851
Mitch Trubisky: 572*
As with most data collections, there are counters in both categories, but the results were surprisingly consistent. The quarterbacks who did well almost immediately in their NFL career averaged 1,195.25 passes during their college careers. By contrast, those who took longer to blossom averaged 880.71. That’s a substantial drop. It would seem that a minimum of 1,000 passes was required to achieve quick success.
Sure, there are exceptions. Five QBs in the first category excelled right away despite throwing fewer than 1,000 while five in the second had over 1,000 but still took time. However, the trend is there. If you didn’t throw a ton of passes in college, the odds are you aren’t going to experience true individual excellence as a pro quarterback right away.
Trubisky comes on the lower end of this spectrum. He only started one year at North Carolina and got spotty action in the years before that. Only five other quarterbacks listed above had fewer than 600 passing attempts during their college run. Here’s how long it took each of them to reach the 88 rating mark.
Joe Montana
- Drafted in 1979
- Started in 1980
- Topped 88 rating for first time in 1981 (third year)
Chris Chandler
- Drafted in 1988
- Started in 1988
- Topped 88 rating for first time in 1997 (tenth year)
Brian Griese
- Drafted in 1998
- Started in 1999
- Topped 88 rating for first time in 2000 (third year)
Michael Vick
- Drafted in 2001
- Started in 2002
- Topped 88 rating for first time in 2010 (eighth year due to a two-year prison term)
Alex Smith
- Drafted in 2005
- Started in 2005
- Topped 88 rating for first time in 2011 (seventh year)
The message all of this sends? We should’ve seen these struggles coming for Trubisky. Yes, he’s a #2 overall pick and that comes with elevated expectations. Here’s the thing though. It’s not his fault he went that high. This falls at the feet of GM Ryan Pace. He made that pick knowing the risks, knowing that it may take longer than some might like to get Trubisky going.
Criticize him for being too aggressive, but also applaud him for having that kind of guts. He believes Trubisky, with time, can be a top passer in the NFL. The data shows that’s certainly possible. There are plenty of examples of those who had great careers but didn’t get off to great starts. It’s about whether the organizations they were in were willing to wait.
It’s worth noting that the quarterbacks who took longer to develop ended up winning a total of 19 Super Bowls and counting. Those who got off to hot starts have seven. So speed isn’t everything.
