Is holding out starters in the preseason to prevent injuries a wise idea. Yes, it is. Nothing derails a team faster than key players going down. However, Matt Nagy should know more than anybody how different it is for quarterbacks. There is only so much practices can do against the same defense over and over. At some point, Mitch Trubisky would need some actual game action. If for nothing more than to knock off some rust.
Nagy refused to take the chance. He took three snaps in the preseason and all three were handoffs to the running back. The Bears head coach wasn’t worried about it. He felt confident Trubisky would be prepared for opening night against the Green Bay Packers. Then the game happened. Contrary to what Nagy said, his young quarterback looked horribly rusty. His timing and rhythm were out of whack from the start, as was the case for most of the starting offense.
What didn’t help matters is that the remainder of Week 1 across the NFL only continued to chip away at Nagy’s decision. Here are two lists. The first is notable quarterbacks who attempted less than 10 passes in the preseason. The second is comprised of those who threw at least 10 or more.
Ten passes or fewer
Mitch Trubisky – 0 attempts
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- 228 yards, 1 INT
Aaron Rodgers – 0 attempts
- 203 yards, 1 TD
Jared Goff – 0 attempts
- 186 yards, 1 INT
Cam Newton – 6 attempts
- 239 yards, 1 INT
Ten passes or more
Dak Prescott – 14 attempts
- 405 yards, 4 TDs
Lamar Jackson – 16 attempts
- 324 yards, 5 TDs
Matthew Stafford – 19 attempts
- 385 yards, 3 TDs
Marcus Mariota – 20 attempts
- 248 yards, 3 TDs
The contrast between the two lists is striking. Clearly those who got some reps in preseason seemed more prepared and ready to go when opening day came. There were some exceptions. Jameis Winston and Baker Mayfield both threw a number of passes in the preseason and still managed to toss three interceptions apiece. Even so, the trend, for the most part, holds true.
Matt Nagy can’t always overcome slow starts
Nagy sounded confident despite the Packers loss that his team could turn things around. After all, they lost the opener last year too and ended up going 12-4. This is true. However, what the coach fails to realize is the NFL isn’t always that accommodating. Teams who lose their openers face a significantly lower probability of making the playoffs than those who win it. This doesn’t mean the Bears can’t. It just means their job becomes that much harder.
Now they have to go up to Denver, a notoriously difficult stadium to play in. Not only that, but this offense which is out of sorts will go against a Vic Fangio-coached defense. That sounds like a recipe for repeating what they saw against the Packers. If the Bears aren’t careful, they may start the year 0-2. That’s when their Super Bowl hopes will really start to fizzle away.
Nagy may despise the preseason and he has some perfectly valid reasons to. However, the four-game stretch does serve a purpose. At least when it comes to quarterbacks. It’s a hard position to play. He should know this. Every rep of actual game action matters.
