Unsurprisingly the Green Bay Packers are in early control of the NFC North. This is what happens when an organization has an all-time great under center. Aaron Rodgers has owned this division pretty much since he took over in 2008. Even as his 40s draw closer, the future Hall of Famer is still one of the best to do it. However, there is also a feeling of desperation in the air. One brought on by the knowledge this could be his last run with the team.

Rodgers held out most of the summer due to disagreements with Packers top brass. They only managed to bring him in after an adjustment was made to his contract. One that gave him more freedom over his future after 2021. Dan Graziano of ESPN believes that Rodgers leaving next year isn’t just likely. It is certain. Not just because signs point to him wanting out, but also because of the team’s ugly salary cap situation.

Projected 2022 cap space: Roughly $27 million over the cap

This projection factors in the roughly $7 million in cap space the Packers currently have for 2021 and assumes they would carry it over into 2022. (We didn’t do that for the Saints, because their current 2021 cap space is minimal.) The key element here is that the Packers are likely to save an immediate $19.3 million in cap space when they inevitably cut or trade quarterback Aaron Rodgers after this season. That move will get them close, and assuming 2020 first-round pick Jordan Love is ready to take over at quarterback, they won’t need to spend big at that position.

As in almost everything, there is one rule. Follow the money.

It might not end there for the Packers though. Graziano says it could end up getting a lot worse for them. Losing Rodgers won’t solve their cap issue entirely. There is also a strong likelihood their superstar receiver Davante Adams will be gone as well. Not to mention some key pieces on defense. Add it all up and there could be a significant roster turnover for Green Bay next year. Much of how bad it is for them hinges on the development of Jordan Love.

They would lose top wideout Davante Adams to free agency in this scenario, so it’s possible they look to add from the outside at that position. To clear room to bring him back, the Packers could save about $28 million in cap space by moving on from the “Smith Brothers” — Preston and Za’Darius — and by extending the contract of top cornerback Jaire Alexander, which would knock down his 2022 cap number of $13.294 million by quite a bit.

Those are some big, big names. Key pieces that have made the Packers a major success the past two years in reaching the NFC championship twice. Replacing all of that feels almost impossible. Yet that is the situation GM Brian Gutekunst has found himself in. He no doubt desperately hopes his team can accomplish the mission to win a Super Bowl this year. If they don’t, then it might be a long time before they get another shot.

Aaron Rodgers continues to mask the Packers’ problems

Being 3-1, most would think this team is among the NFL’s best. That would be somewhat misleading. Green Bay ranks 19th in points allowed on defense. This despite playing a string of mostly average-to-below average offenses. Their running game has also underperformed, ranking just 24th through the first four weeks. The one thing that hasn’t changed much is Rodgers who has continued to do enough to keep them a step ahead of opponents.

This goes back to what many critics have said. Without Aaron Rodgers on the field, is this even a team that finishes with a winning record? It’s a spirited debate for sure. Either way, the team continues to survive and should get some help with returning injured players over the next few weeks. Whether they have enough to finally get over the hump? That is hard to say.

They better hope so.

Barring something completely unexpected, Rodgers will be leaving next year. With or without that elusive second ring. Most expect several teams to vie for his services and Green Bay will be left wondering if their incredible streak of luck at quarterback might finally be over.