Ryan Pace is a creature of habit. A big reason Chicago Bears fans and media seem so convinced the GM might trade up from the 20th pick is that he’s done it multiple times in the past. Of the six top picks he’s held since taking over in 2015, he’s moved up the board from three of them. In 2016 for Leonard Floyd, 2017 for Mitch Trubisky, and 2019 for David Montgomery. Not once has the man chosen to move down. Could 2021 finally be the year that changes?

Plenty of fans hope so. The Bears still have a number of holes left to fill. They’re short on money as well. It’s reaching a point where the team can’t keep trying to plug voids with expensive veterans. They have to start stacking young, cheap bodies on the roster. Chicago currently has eight picks in this upcoming draft. They could add to that tally were they to move down from #20.

If this did happen, what sort of returns could they be looking at.

As always, it depends on where they ultimately decide to fall. Will it be just a short drop down a few spots? Or will they take a bigger leap down to the bottom of the 1st or even the top of the 2nd? To get a gauge on the possibilities, I did some research. Since 1999, there have been three instances where a team traded down from the 20th overall pick. Here is what happened with each of them.

• 1999 – Seahawks swapped #20 with Dallas for #22 and a 5th round pick
• 2002 – Seahawks swapped #20 and a 5th to Packers for #28 and a 2nd round pick
• 2014 – Cardinals swapped #20 to Saints for #27 pick and a 3rd round pick

This sets a fairly easy-to-gauge template for what the Bears could expect. A short drop say two or three spots would likely net them an extra Day 3 pick. Falling further towards the bottom of the 20s will move them in Day 2 range, either 3rd or 2nd rounders. From there? It’s not hard to theorize that a drop to the 30s or the top of the 2nd round likely secures a future 1st rounder.

An interesting fact related to yesterday’s trades…Over the last 10 yrs, the QBs that were traded up for in the top 3 picks include: RG3, Goff, Wentz, Trubisky, Darnold. This is a cautionary tale for the 49ers.

— Mike Tannenbaum (@RealTannenbaum) March 27, 2021

Is this a good year for the Chicago Bears to trade down?

That is the other part of the question that not enough people take seriously. Moving down for extra picks sounds nice, but not if it could end up costing a team a really good player at a position of need. Say the Bears needed a tight end and a solid one was available at #20. They decide to trade down anyway and that player is scooped up before they’re on the board again. Now there are no good tight ends left on the board. Was the trade worth it?

This is the risk Pace will have to weigh. This season the needs list is as follows. Quarterback is obvious with offensive tackle, wide receiver, and cornerbacks all coming up behind. While QB is unlikely to be a factor at #20, the other three positions most definitely will. Based on the projections of multiple experts, there won’t be a lot of separation in terms of talent at any of those positions. One taken at #20 isn’t likely to be substantially more talented than one taken at #27 or #28.

All three positions appear to have a strong depth to them.

So if there were a year where the Chicago Bears wanted to consider a move down, this could be the one. Pace always says he listens to offers whenever they’re made. A source informed men they’ve actually already received one. In his mind, it comes down to whether the deal is fair and good for the team. Thus far he hasn’t received one that checks the right boxes. Maybe this time will be different.