Mitch Trubisky effect could be profound over the next month
Count Adam Rank of NFL.com among those who are buying in. Though admittedly a Bears fan at heart, he was prepared to defend a bold prediction he made upon hearing Trubisky got the nod. Not only does he think the offense will improve. He went so far as to say the shot in the arm will energize the team to surprising success ahead of the bye week.
“The Bears are in their current position because of Mike Glennon. (I don’t really want to put the sole blame on him, but not to the point I won’t do it.) I’m not saying a better quarterback finishes the job in Week 1 against the Falcons … actually, that’s exactly what I’m saying. So let’s say that would have been a win under Trubisky. The Bucs game, fine, that was a bust. But the Bears did beat the Steelers in Week 3. And they might not have beaten the Packers, but that game wouldn’t have gotten as far out of hand as it did. There were key moments when the defense held and Glennon turned the ball over.
With Mitch at the helm now, the Bears could really be .500 headed into the Week 9 bye. Stop. I’m serious.”
Based on this prediction it means he believes the Bears will win three of their next four games. That sounds crazy to think about. The last time this franchise won three games in a four-week span was between November 9th and November 26th of 2015. They beat the Chargers and Rams in consecutive weeks, lost to Denver and then won that infamous Thanksgiving game in Green Bay.
Since then they’ve lost 20 of their last 25 games.
Rank went on to explain why there’s reason to hope
Of course any man who makes that sort of statement these days is deemed insane. How can a rookie possibly have that sort of effect on such a dismal team? He broke it down via the schedule ahead and why there is far less reason to fear it than people think.
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Week 5: vs. the Vikings. I’m not conceding a game to Case Keenum and Latavius Murray. The Bears have played great at home.
The Bears beat Minnesota handily at Soldier Field last year 20-10. Dalvin Cook, their prized running back this year tore his ACL and is done for the season. Minnesota is 0-2 when they fail to run for 100 yards or more. The Bears run defense is fifth in the NFL.
Week 6: at the Ravens. Baltimore lost to the Steelers, whom the Bears beat. And lost-at-sea Joe Flacco ranks last in yards per attempt, last in passing yards, 30th in TD-to-INT ratio (4:6) and 31st in passer rating (65.0).
Baltimore is having serious problems. Their offense has managed just 16 total points over the past two weeks. Their defense? It’s begun to lose steam after a hot start, ranking 26th at stopping the run. Music to the ears of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen.
Week 7: vs. the Panthers. All right, Carolina is a good football team.
Indeed they’re good but hardly infallible. Their defense has allowed 30+ points each of the past two weeks. Their offensive line is also a persistent issue, averaging under 4.0 yards on non-QB rushes and allowing 12 sacks in four games. That puts them on pace for 48.
Week 8: at the Saints. I’m not going to concede this one, either, at least not with that 28th-ranked Saints defense.
New Orleans just got done shutting out the Miami Dolphins but that’s not a huge feat. Miami managed just six points the week before against the Jets. Meanwhile the vaunted Saints offense isn’t quite the machine it was last year. They’ve managed to score more than 20 points once in four games.
Rank put his reasoning in the simplest terms.
“Yes, I know it’s outlandish to think a rookie quarterback could come into a lineup and spark a team. Just look how poorly it’s working out for the Texans right now. Oh, wait, that’s right.”
He is of course referring to Deshaun Watson in Houston, who is now 2-1 as a starter. Comparisons between him and Trubisky are inevitable, but also a little unfair. Watson inherited a talented roster that went to the playoffs last year. Trubisky took over a bottom three team in a rebuilding phase.
However, there is something worth pointing out. History does suggest that the Bears do get a boost from starting rookies, whether by choice or necessity. Since the 1970 merger, the Bears are 22-22 when they’ve started a rookie under center. The combined record from those same seasons they played? A depressing 26-63.
