Will a Chicago Bears draft trade happen in the first round again? Fans know they can’t rule it out. Ryan Pace has traded out of his original spot in two of his first three drafts. Both times it was to move up for Leonard Floyd and Mitch Trubisky respectively. Could he go for a third-straight time? Or perhaps it may be the old switcheroo in 2018 and he hopes to move down? There certainly are strong rumors to suggest this.
Of course, it comes with the usual line: he’ll only move down if the deal offered is favorable. This year is a bit different for Pace. It could be the second-straight he’ll have gone without a third round pick. In fact, the Bears have used less than the typical seven picks in the 2015 and 2017 drafts due to various trades. Pace, being a former scout, may not like the idea of relying too heavily on free agents. Hence a need for more picks.
In that case, it’s worth asking. Are there any teams who might see the Bears’ #8 pick as a valuable landing spot in the top 10? That’s a loaded question because it entirely depends on who’s available when they go on the clock. Even so, there are some hot spots that look like viable candidates. Here’s a breakdown of who they are, what they’re after, and possible compensation for the Bears.
Candidate #1: Miami Dolphins at 11th overall
Likely targets – A quarterback or RB Saquon Barkley
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The Dolphins had to pick Jay Cutler off the street last year. Keep that in mind. Ryan Tannehill has untrustworthy health and there’s every reason to think head coach Adam Gase wants to start fresh with his own QB. On the other hand, Miami has tried like mad to fix their running back position. They were rumored to be trying for a Jordan Howard trade and backed out of a deal for C.J. Anderson. It’s only logical they’d be fully on board with the chance to jump up and snag Penn State stud Saquon Barkley.
Possible compensation – A 3rd round pick
According to draft trade value charts, there is a 150-point difference between the #8 pick and Miami’s #11 pick. The Dolphins’ third round choice is worth 225 points. So that seems like they’d be overpaying but if it’s for a quarterback that is just something they’d have to swallow. If it’s for Barkley. One idea is the Dolphins give up #11 and their third for #8 and the Bears later fourth rounder, worth 64 points. That would make the deal fair if a bit less enticing from the Chicago’s perspective.
Candidate #2: Buffalo Bills at 12th overall
Likely targets – A quarterback or OG Quenton Nelson
Everybody knows the Bills are all-in at this point to get a quarterback. They traded away Tyrod Taylor. As of now, their best option is A.J. McCarron, who couldn’t beat out Andy Dalton in Cincinnati for the starting job. Odds are they’re trying to get somewhere in the top five to have a good chance at landing somebody they covet. That doesn’t mean one might slip to #8. Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson must also now be considered too after the Bills lost their starting center and guard to retirement this off-season.
Possible compensation – 3rd and 4th round picks
Buffalo has a bevy of picks at their disposal including two in each of the first three rounds. They have picks at the beginning and end of the third round. The earlier pick (265-point value) would more than cover the 200-point difference between the #8 and #12 picks. If that doesn’t do it for them, they could package their later third (116 points) and fourth rounders (52 points) to cover most of the distance.
Candidate #3: Arizona Cardinals at 15th overall
Likely targets – A quarterback
Arizona needs a quarterback. Like…REALLY needs one. Right now their best options are either Sam Bradford or Mike Glennon. Bradford has glass where his knees should be, having endured a string of injuries that ruined what could’ve been a great career. Glennon? Every Bears fan got a gag-inducing view of what he can do last year. Suffice to say the Cardinals have zero future at the position. Their odds of finding it outside the first round? Remote. Moving up seems like their only option.
Possible compensation – Two 3rd round picks and a 5th round pick
Everybody knows the price goes up when a quarterback is involved. So the Cardinals are going to have to overpay a bit to get their guy. Their #15 pick is worth 1050 points, 350 less than the Bears at #8. Luckily for them, they received a compensatory third rounder this year, giving them two that makes for a total of 307 points. They could then throw in their fifth rounder (30.2 points) to narrow the gap enough.
Candidate #4: New England Patriots at 23rd overall
Likely targets – A quarterback
In one fell swoop, the Patriots gutted their succession plan for Tom Brady last year. Jacoby Brissett was traded to the Indianapolis Colts early in the year and then Jimmy Garoppolo was shipped to San Francisco prior to the trade deadline. With Brady turning 41-years old, the Patriots are playing with fire. If he gets hurt or decides to suddenly retire, they’re screwed. That’s why many believe they could get aggressive for a QB in this draft and they have the ammunition to do it.
Possible compensation – #23 pick, #31 pick, and 3rd round pick
The biggest bargaining chip New England has right now is their extra first rounder. Combined the two picks are worth 1,360 points. That almost covers the total value of #8. A late fourth would provide the extra push. Problem is the Patriots don’t have one. Then again that hasn’t stopped them before. They never mind swapping pick position in these cases. If the Bears flipped their #105 pick in the fourth for the Patriots’ 95th in the third, that would add another 36 points in value, bringing it up to 1,396.
