Cole Kmet understands the expectations placed on him. The Chicago Bears made him their top draft choice of 2020 for a reason. They see a bright future in him. Somebody who can finally solve the tight end crisis they’ve been mired in for five years now. It’s safe to say there is no shortage of doubters. Plenty of draft experts weren’t wild about his selection, feeling he wasn’t worth going as high as he did.
Is it because he’s not that talented? Not entirely. Most acknowledge he’s a big guy with some good athleticism and pass-catching prowess. Yet they don’t view him as the total package. Likely because he never put up notable numbers at Notre Dame. Some blame that on the fact so much of his focus was elsewhere in college, both on academics and also baseball. He never fully embraced football until he graduated.
Josh Norris, a longtime draft analyst for Rotoworld though has a different reason for why Kmet was a questionable pick. It’s not so much about the talent. It’s more about how soon he can make a viable impact. He explained on the Under Center Podcast with JJ Stankevitz.
“I think, tight end, selecting them in round one and round two is very dangerous right now…That position is so difficult to translate to the NFL early in their careers. That you rarely have someone make a two-year impact in their rookie year. Back-to-back great seasons. In fact they might have their best year in their contract year and then really pick it up in their second contract with their first team or with their next team when they get traded. We’ve seen that a lot with tight ends. I can draw Greg Olsen’s name with Bears fans.”
History does show Cole Kmet may not help right away
It’s an interesting point. Think about it. The Bears are in win-now mode for the 2020 season, right? They have a top 5 defense that isn’t getting any younger. If they’re going to make a run at a Super Bowl, this could be their last big opportunity. For that, they need help on offense. Norris is contending that while Kmet may end up a good player, the odds of it being right away aren’t great.
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History does back him up too. While the Pro Bowl isn’t the primary measuring stick of how good NFL players are, it does offer an idea of when they truly started to peak. Here is a list of the top tight ends around the league and when they started to hit their stride.
- Zach Ertz reached first Pro Bowl in 5th season
- Travis Kelce reached first Pro Bowl in 3rd season
- George Kittle reached first Pro Bowl in 2nd season
- Greg Olsen reached first Pro Bowl in 8th season
- Austin Hooper reached first Pro Bowl in 3rd season
- Jared Cook reached first Pro Bowl in 10th season
Some guys like Kittle and Kelce got going almost immediately by their second or third seasons. Others like Olsen, Ertz, and Cook took more time before they stepped up their game. The common theme with all of them though was they didn’t hit immediately. Wouldn’t it make more sense for the Bears to try adding an offensive player who can help immediately?
GM Ryan Pace didn’t think so. He felt the talent was too good to pass up.
He even had a plan in place for the acclimation period too. There is no doubt this is why the Bears signed Jimmy Graham. They wanted him to shoulder the load in the passing game given his obvious experience. His presence would allow the coaches to bring Kmet along slowly. It’s not a terrible plan, but it is one that comes with risks. That is why Norris can’t help but question it.
Pace not be around long enough to see if his pick bears fruit in the coming years if Chicago doesn’t win this season.
