The Chicago Bears will try to take down the Atlanta Falcons on the road today. Most of their hopes hinge on the return of quarterback Caleb Williams. He was activated for the game after practicing all week. After missing three games with a hamstring injury, he should be good to go. Will his return be enough to revive the Bears’ stagnant offense? It’ll have to be. His first challenge will be Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, who’s done a great job making a traditionally bad defense more viable in the past couple of years.
They currently rank 7th in the NFL in pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks and have the 4th-best run defense in the league. People aren’t sure if Williams is prepared for this sort of challenge so soon after returning. After digging into the matchup, one thing became clear. Ulbrich, for all of his success, tends to struggle against more mobile quarterbacks. He’s faced such types 16 times in his career, and is 4-12 against them. Those quarterbacks have completed 66.1% of their passes for an average of 253.6 yards, 1.8 TDs, 0.9 INTs, and added 36.2 yards rushing.
Jeff Ulbrich can’t always solve the mobility problem.
| Quarterback | Date | Game Result | Cmp/Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Car | Rush Yds | Rush TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 11/14/2021 | BUF 45, NYJ 17 | 21/28 | 366 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| 01/09/2022 | BUF 27, NYJ 10 | 24/45 | 239 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 63 | 0 | |
| 11/06/2022 | NYJ 20, BUF 17 | 18/34 | 205 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 86 | 0 | |
| 12/11/2022 | BUF 20, NYJ 12 | 16/27 | 147 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 47 | 0 | |
| 09/11/2023 | NYJ 22, BUF 16 (OT) | 29/41 | 236 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 | |
| 11/19/2023 | BUF 32, NYJ 6 | 20/32 | 275 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 1 | |
| 10/14/2024 | BUF 23, NYJ 20 | 19/25 | 215 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 1 | |
| 12/29/2024 | BUF 40, NYJ 14 | 14/22 | 251 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 0 | |
| Jalen Hurts | 10/15/2023 | NYJ 20, PHI 14 | 28/45 | 280 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 47 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 09/11/2022 | BAL 24, NYJ 9 | 17/30 | 213 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 10/01/2023 | KC 23, NYJ 20 | 18/30 | 203 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 10/11/2020 | ARI 30, ATL 10 | 27/37 | 380 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 1 |
| 11/10/2024 | ARI 31, NYJ 6 | 22/24 | 266 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 2 | |
| Russell Wilson | 09/13/2020 | SEA 38, ATL 25 | 31/35 | 322 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| 10/08/2023 | NYJ 31, DEN 21 | 20/31 | 196 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 49 | 0 | |
| 10/20/2024 | PIT 37, NYJ 15 | 16/29 | 264 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Ulbrich has been heavily reliant on one factor in his wins.
That is turnovers. His defense recorded 8 interceptions across the 4 victories listed above. They had 6 in the 12 losses. In other words, if Ulbrich’s defense hasn’t taken the ball away, they tend to lose those games. His defenses have given up an average of 30.83 points in those 12 losses. This is where Williams may have a decisive advantage. Over the past two seasons, he has had an interception percentage of 0.9. That is by far the lowest of any starting quarterback in the league. The next closest, Jalen Hurts, sits at 1.2.
Williams just doesn’t give the ball away a lot. If those two trends hold, it stands to reason that the Bears have a really good chance to get a much-needed victory. As good as Jeff Ulbrich has been at stopping the run, his unit has struggled against the pass. They are 27th in the league, allowing 300+ yards in four consecutive games. Chicago has all of its offensive weapons in the passing game healthy. If the offensive line can provide Williams proper protection, it sounds like he should have an opportunity for a big game.
🔥 Subscribe to the Untold Chicago YouTube channel to hear Chicago legends tell stories you’ve never seen in headlines — real moments, real experiences, straight from the athletes themselves.
Will rust play a factor?
Not playing in nearly a month can sometimes impact quarterbacks. They struggle to find a rhythm. Williams is known for his somewhat slower starts. That could give Atlanta a big opportunity to take advantage of a weakened Bears defense. The best way for Ulbrich to counter Williams is by getting a big lead. This would enable him to focus on attacking the quarterback, knowing the Bears won’t be able to run the ball. Atlanta is 16th in 1st quarter points allowed this season.
So much of how this game plays out will be determined in the first 15 minutes. The Falcons are 1-3 this season when the opponent scores first. Williams can really put them in a bind if he can get the Bears on the board early. Everything comes down to that hamstring. How often will the quarterback be willing to test it by running? If he’s anywhere close to his usual self, Ulbrich and his defense will have problems.
