When Jimmy Johnson was head coach of the Dallas Cowboys, he quickly recognized the potential of trades in the draft. However, he knew it would be easy to lose track of whether he was getting ripped off or not. So he had his people assemble a value chart. It assigned a number value to every pick in the draft. When he engaged in trade talks, he would use that chart to determine whether he was getting good value in a deal or not. He credits that novel approach as a big reason he was able to build the Cowboys dynasty of the 1990s. Since then, every team in the NFL, including the Chicago Bears, has adopted a similar approach.
GM Ryan Poles could be only the third person since the turn of the millennium to trade the #1 pick. The necessary boxes are checked. He already has a young quarterback in Justin Fields, and his team is entering Year 2 of a rebuild. More picks should help that process along. The challenge is determining what the Bears can or can’t get from other teams for that top pick. So let’s take a look at the standard value chart for every potential suitor.
Pure math paints an interesting picture for the Chicago Bears.
Houston Texans
- Give: 1st pick (3000 points)
- Receive: 2nd pick (2600 points), 65th pick (265 points), and 73rd pick (225 points)
- Differential: +90 points
Indianapolis Colts
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- Give: 1st pick (3000 points)
- Receive: 4th pick (1800 points), 35th pick (550 points), 104th pick (98 points), 2nd in 2024 (420 points), and 3rd in 2024 (190 points)
- Differential: +58 points
Las Vegas Raiders
- Give: 1st pick (3000 points)
- Receive: 7th pick (1500 points), 38th pick (520 points), and 1st in 2024 (1000 points)
- Differential: +20 points
Carolina Panthers
- Give: 1st pick (3000 points)
- Receive: 9th pick (1350 points), 39th pick (510 points), 1st in 2024 (1000 points), and 3rd in 2024 (190 points)
- Differential: +50 points
Tennessee Titans
- Give: 1st pick (3000 points) and 101st pick (103 points)
- Receive: 11th pick (1250 points), 41st pick (490 points), 1st in 2024 (1000 points), and 2nd in 2024 (420 points)
- Differential: +57 points
It’s important to remember teams each have their own value charts when it comes to trades. Not all of them are similar to what Johnson did in Dallas. Still, this offers an interesting idea of what the Chicago Bears can expect in terms of ballpark offers. Obviously, the involvement of quarterbacks could inflate them. Based on pure math, the Raiders can offer the “fairest” deal. As far as package quality? That depends on preference. Poles would get could value in two high 3rd rounders from Houston while only moving down one spot. However, if he seeks a future 1st, then Carolina might be the sweet spot since the Bears will still be in the top 10. This comes down to Poles’ view of the draft class and the compensation he’s seeking.
