Let’s get one thing straight off the jump: Caleb Williams is talented. You don’t win the Heisman, go first overall, and pull off Mahomes-lite highlight reels if you’re trash. But before Bears fans book hotel rooms for Santa Clara next February, let’s talk about what actually wins Super Bowls in the NFL — and how far Williams still has to go.
We’ve already looked at the scores of the offensive line, defensive line, offensive weapons, and defensive secondary. Today, we go over the final and most important position in football: the quarterback.
We dug into the last 10 Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks, from Brady’s dominance to Mahomes’ magic to that one Nick Foles fever dream. Turns out, there’s a blueprint. And if you stack up Williams’ rookie tape and stats against it, the gap is obvious.
The Gold Standard: What It Takes to Win the Big One
Super Bowl Winning QB Metrics (2015-2024)
| Metric | Super Bowl Benchmark |
|---|---|
| Passer Rating | 102.9 |
| TD/Game | 2.17 |
| INT/Game | 0.65 |
| Completion % | 66.3% |
| TD:INT Ratio | 4.55:1 |
| Yards/Game | 294.3 |
Want a Lombardi? Hit those numbers, or come damn close. Mahomes (3 rings), Brady (4 rings in that span), and even guys like Stafford and Foles checked those boxes when it counted. Peyton Manning dragged a corpse of an arm to one in 2016, but he’s the exception — not the rule.
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And when you calculate a composite score across these stats with weighted value (passer rating, TDs, picks, etc.), you need a 75+ out of 100 to be a true Super Bowl-caliber QB.
Statistical Overview of Super Bowl Winning Quarterbacks
| Year | Quarterback | Team | Passer Rating | Passing Yards | TD | INT | Comp % |
| 2015 | Tom Brady | Patriots | 102.2 | 4,436 | 28 | 8 | 64.4% |
| 2016 | Peyton Manning | Broncos | 67.9 | 2,249 | 9 | 17 | 59.8% |
| 2017 | Tom Brady | Patriots | 112.2 | 3,554 | 28 | 2 | 67.4% |
| 2018 | Nick Foles | Eagles | 79.5 | 537 | 5 | 2 | 56.4% |
| 2019 | Tom Brady | Patriots | 100.7 | 4,057 | 29 | 11 | 65.8% |
| 2020 | Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 105.3 | 4,031 | 26 | 5 | 65.9% |
| 2021 | Tom Brady | Bucs | 102.2 | 4,633 | 40 | 12 | 65.7% |
| 2022 | Matthew Stafford | Rams | 102.9 | 4,886 | 41 | 17 | 67.2% |
| 2023 | Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 105.2 | 5,250 | 41 | 12 | 67.1% |
| 2024 | Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 92.6 | 4,183 | 27 | 14 | 67.2% |
The Caleb Conundrum: Where the Bears’ Guy Stands
Caleb Williams’ rookie line? (StatMuse)
| Metric | Caleb | Benchmark |
| Passer Rating | 87.8 | 102.9 |
| TD/Game | 1.18 | 2.17 |
| INT/Game | 0.35 | 0.65 |
| Completion % | 62.5% | 66.3% |
| Yards/Game | 208.3 | 294.3 |
| TD:INT Ratio | 3.33 | 4.55 |
Translation: a mixed bag. He protects the ball well and shows flashes. But the raw production just isn’t there yet. His composite score? 58.9/100.
That puts him in the “Playoff Hopeful” category. Not a bust. But not a guy who can drag you to the promised land either.
Let’s Break It Down
What’s Working
- Mobility & Improvisation: Kid can move. 6.0 YPC on 81 carries proves he’s not just scrambling to panic.
- Pocket Presence: Surprisingly poised for a rookie. When protection held up, he flashed top-10 vision.
- Turnover Control: Only six picks? That’s elite-level discipline, especially for a guy throwing into NFL windows for the first time.
What’s Broken
- Volume & Efficiency: 86 fewer yards per game than the average Super Bowl winner? You’re not winning in January dinking your way down the field.
- Accuracy: 62.5% ain’t terrible, but when you’re aiming for 66%+ to be elite? That’s a problem.
- Scoring Punch: 20 touchdowns over 17 games won’t cut it. That’s JV-level firepower for a team with DJ Moore and Rome Odunze.
But Wait, Context Matters
Let’s not act like this dude was dealing with the 2020 Chiefs offense. His line was leaky, his OC was learning him on the fly, and Chicago still had one foot in rebuild mode. Despite that, he progressed steadily and never looked lost. That’s rare.
Now he’s got:
- A retooled O-line with Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson locking things down
- Three WR1-caliber weapons in Moore, Odunze, and Luther Burden III
- Ben Johnson calling plays, a mad scientist who made Jared Goff look surgical in Detroit
No more excuses.
The Leap: What It Would Take to Contend
Let’s say Caleb hits every key benchmark next season. What does that look like?
| Metric | Current | Target | Needed Growth |
| Passer Rating | 87.8 | 102.9 | +15.1 |
| TD/Game | 1.18 | 2.17 | +0.99 |
| Completion % | 62.5% | 66.3% | +3.8% |
| Yards/Game | 208.3 | 294.3 | +86.0 |
It’s a massive jump. But not impossible. Especially not with the weapons he has now.
If he gets there, his composite score jumps to 89.3. That’s Mahomes/Brady-tier.
Real Talk: What’s the Timeline?
Best case? He takes that leap in 2025 and we’re talking NFC Championship.
More realistically? Year 3. That’s when most high-ceiling QBs hit their stride. Think Allen. Think Burrow. Even Mahomes redshirted year one.
The Bears are finally not screwing up their QB’s development — but that doesn’t mean they’re contenders just yet.
Final Verdict
The Bears and Caleb Williams aren’t frauds. They’re just not contenders yet. The arm talent, decision-making, and mobility are all there. But the production and efficiency have to catch up.
In a league where you need to throw daggers on third down and bury teams in the red zone, 208 passing yards per game and 1.18 TDs ain’t scaring anybody.
Give it time. The bones of a Super Bowl team are there — especially with Johnson at the helm and a revamped roster. But if you’re dreaming about a ring in 2025? You might want to pump the brakes. Yeah, I know it’s a team sport, but let’s be real: quarterback is the main driver of how far a team can actually go.
As a proud member of the local CW Fan Club, I agree with PoochFest that there is more to a rookie QB than just his rookie season. He’s in good hands now and my fan club membership will get evidence of whether I stay or leave because he will be working with professionals that understand what it takes for a QB to play well.
Perhaps he will never ever win even one Superbowl.
My preferred QBs were Stroud and Hurts before the drafts. Hurts has one. It’s Stroud’s turn now. Maybe RB Bijan will help Atlanta do it.
Using statistics, Ficky identifies what a quarterback needs to win Super Bowls. However, who is the boss of quarterbacks? Who calls the plays? Who puts “talented” receivers into place? Who places blockers into place to block? Who organizes this stuff? If you look at David Carr who was drafted to the Houston Texans and promptly broke all records for a rookie being sacked out of college, or Payton Manning, and Troy Aikman, they did poorly. BUT, some of them had coaches. And David Carr never had the opportunity to have a coach. The important thing about coaches and coordinators, is… Read more »
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