Thursday, July 3, 2025

The Ugly Truth About the Bears’ Defensive Line — And Why It’s Sabotaging Their Super Bowl Dreams

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Let’s cut to the chase: Chicago’s defensive line has potential, but it’s still a few big moves away from being championship caliber. Yesterday, I broke down the offensive line’s scorecard — today we turn the spotlight to the defense and see if the front four has what it takes to carry this team deep into January. There’s a clear gap between where they stand and where elite Super Bowl units operate. In the Super Bowl era, if you’re not hitting certain thresholds — like sacks, depth, and star power — you’re not hoisting the Lombardi. The Bears have some building blocks, sure — but are they packing enough firepower up front to make a real postseason run? Let’s dig into the numbers and find out.


What It Takes to Be Championship‑Caliber

Before diving into the team-by-team breakdown, here’s how the scoring works: each defensive line was evaluated across five key championship-relevant categories — sack production (25 points), points allowed (25), overall talent level (25), depth (15), and run defense (10). These categories were chosen based on trends seen across the past ten Super Bowl-winning teams. Each unit was benchmarked on how well they executed in these critical areas.

Tallying Super Bowl winners from 2015 to 2024, two trends stick out:

  1. Most champs hit 85+ points on the D‑line.
  2. Average is 80.2 points, with 70% scoring 75+ — that year’s edges not only rushed — they wrecked.

Let’s break the tiers:

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  • Elite (90+): 2015 Broncos, headlined by Von Miller & Co. — 52 sacks, 18.5 PPG allowed, per Pro Football Reference
  • Excellent (85–89): 2021 Rams, 2024 Eagles. Dominant pass wrinkles across the board.
  • Strong (80–84): 2020 Bucs, 2023 Chiefs — excellent, just shy of elite.
  • Average Champs (75–79): 2017/2019 Eagles, Chiefs duo. Solid — but secondary or offense carried them.
  • Below Standard (68–72): 2016/2018 Patriots — coaching + clutch, not D‑line dominance.

Benchmarks every contender needs (Pro Football Reference):

  • ≥ 2.7 sacks/game
  • < 20 PPG allowed
  • At least one elite pass rusher
  • 6–8 players who can rotate and maintain level
Super Bowl Winners: Defensive Line Performance Scores from 2015-2024. Score is out of 100 points.

Chicago’s 2025 DL Breakdown

Edge Rushers

  • Montez Sweat (28 yr): Reliable — 5.5 sacks, 49 pressures, 65.6 PFF (79th-ranked edge). Solid foundation, not game-changer.
  • Dayo Odeyingbo (25 yr): New addition brings upside and rotational value, but remains unproven in a full-time role.
  • Austin Booker (22 yr): Green 2nd year upside, but not a factor yet.

Interior Push

  • Gervon Dexter Sr. (23 yr): Year‐2 breakout — 5.0 sacks, 70.3 PFF, top‑20 interior pressures (PFF). Maybe the future anchor if he keeps growing.
  • Andrew Billings (29 yr): Run‑stopper, zero edge.
  • Grady Jarrett (31 yr): Veteran free‐agent slot — locker‐room presence and some pass rush juice.

2024 Metrics Recap

  • 2.4 sacks/game → ranks 18th in NFL (Pro Football Reference)
  • 136.3 rush yards/game allowed → 28th in league (Pro Football Reference)

Sure, montez Sweat gives them bite, Dexter is promising inside, and Billings has power — but too many easy yards on the ground. Pressure is fleeting outside him. They’re not near Super Bowl defense.


Score Breakdown 

CategoryMax PointsBears ScoreAnalysis
Sack Production2515Slightly under championship pace
Points Allowed2515~21.8 PPG — not dominant
Talent Level2520Solid — but no megastar(s) beyond Sweat
Depth1510Edge thinner now after Walker cut, but interior gained depth
Run Defense105Last Year was near league bottom overall

Before Season Total: 65/100 — firmly Playoff Hopeful.


What Needs to Happen: A Blueprint to 85

To bridge the gap, Bears must improve 20 points across categories:

1. Get an Elite Edge Rusher (Adds 8–10 pts)

This is non-negotiable. You need a 15+ sack guy. Trade, draft, or sign — someone who burns tackles and flips QBs daily.

2. Gervon Dexter Sr. Goes Next‑Level (Adds 5–7 pts)

From effective to elite. 80+ PFF rating, 10+ sacks interior? Now we’re talking disruptive.

3. Add Quality Depth (Adds 46 pts)

Plug the bench hole. Vet rotational players who maintain tempo when starters rotate. Ideal: 6–8 man rotation.

4. Scheme Fix for Run Defense (Adds 34 pts)

Coaching tweak — gap discipline, alignment, situational awareness. The Dennis Allen effect kicks in.

Projected 2025 total: 73, assuming moderate progress — still short by a full 12 points. That’s wild card territory, not contender.

Chicago Bears’ Defensive Line Score: Current Before Season Score and Potential Improvements Score

Caveats & Wild Cards

  • Billings is a beast vs. run, but zero pass‑rush — slows rotation value.
  • Grady Jarrett’s arrival helps veteran depth, but at 31, he’s not long‑term.
  • Austin Booker’s contribution is uncertain — rookie season was underwhelming.
  • Dexter being young is promising — but will he have a 3rd year breakout?

Final Verdict

Chicago’s defensive line is better — but not great. They’ve got the base: Sweat terrifies QB edges, Dexter is budding, Billings blankets the ground, and Jarrett brings savvy. But they’re 19th‑to‑25th in key stats — and that’s playoff‑worthy, not Super Bowl‑worthy.

What Bears Fans Should Want:

  1. A splash pass rusher in FA or early round pick
  2. A couple of solid rotational players
  3. Defensive line coaching overhaul to tighten run fits and get more push

Keep building, but don’t fool yourself — this isn’t the “Prime Time” Bears of the past. It’s blue‑collar, plucky, a young team that’s a few missing puzzle pieces from becoming a contender.

14 COMMENTS

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PoochPest
Jul 3, 2025 4:59 am

Every comment here is right. From motivation, drafting, to free agents acquisition. It all matters. Schemes matters, but at the core? Positional coaching and lower round drafting. Low round picks are lower round for a reason: they haven’t shown what they can do in college. That doesn’t mean they can’t, but they lack several factors: diet, nutrition, training can get players into physical ranges from anywhere. But the top schools, have resources to MAKE their entire team bigger, stronger, more physically dominant and their reputation at Georgia, Alabama, Michigan or Ohio State, give the the top high school players. The… Read more »

Tred
Jun 30, 2025 6:17 pm

I’ll be objective about Poles. The record, the trades, the drafts – they say he’s objectively mediocre.

And that’s only if we don’t assign half of the blame for Eberflus, Getsy, Waldron and Morgan to him. If we do, his grade drops precipitously.

Last edited 2 days ago by Tred
Krisanthony
Krisanthony
Jun 30, 2025 11:49 am

One of the fairest critiques of Poles during the tear down and his attempted rebuild was that he had no direction. He did not seem to prioritize anything. Certainly not the O-Line or the D-Line.

Tred
Jun 30, 2025 11:23 am

For his career, Sweat has averaged just under 8 sacks a year. That includes 2023, when he was traded to the Bears and had 12.5 sacks for the season – his only season in double digits. (Sweat’s career average is just under 8 sacks/ year. Not even good for top -25 in the NFL last year. Leonard Floyd had 8.5 sacks last year and signed a 10M deal this year) That’s also the year that he refused to even suit up for the Bears, and said he wasn’t sure if he wanted to play here, until Poles gave him a… Read more »

Beardown54
Jun 30, 2025 11:12 am

Can you imagine Poles spending significant resources on the DL in 22′ or 23′ as Tgena suggests? Why else would you mention 5th-round picks and league-min players? Did the prize free agents want to come to Chicago? Would a few extra wins have hurt the rebuild with draft capital? Did we overspend on Sweat because we had to? Yes. Could we have had better mid-round hits? Sure
The other players mentioned are a joke, Tgena. I don’t mind you bashing Poles all you want. Try to be more objective.

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