One thing about the NFL offseason? It’s the time of year when rumors are at their absolute thickest. Fans don’t know which ones to believe and that makes it sort of a fun (if futile) guessing game on which ones to believe. February isn’t even over and the Chicago Bears have already been bombarded by their fair share. Some minor and some way out there.

Which ones should Bears fans take more seriously than others? That is what we’ll discuss here. Five prominent rumors connected to the team are mentioned below. It will be determined if people should buy them as likely true (to some extent) or sell them as nothing more than typical media-driven nonsense.

Either way, one thing is pretty clear.

Chicago Bears rumors are getting thicker

Mitch Trubisky doesn’t want to return to Chicago

This is an interesting one. Davin Kaplan of ESPN recently stated on his radio program he’s heard that the odds of Trubisky coming back are pretty much dead. Not only because the Bears aren’t interested in running it back for the fourth time but also because Trubisky himself has cooled to such an idea. Perhaps the quarterback feels the current coaching staff just doesn’t know how to get the best out of his ability.

Verdict: Sell

This statement just doesn’t make a lot of sense logically. Where is Trubisky going to go where he has a surefire chance to start in 2021? The answer is nowhere. No matter where he ends up landing, he’ll be a backup. The only team that would give him the keys one more time is the one that knows him best in the Bears. So he no doubt would be interested in returning. The problem is that rumor Nagy doesn’t want him back? That is almost certainly true.

Bears will tag-and-trade Allen Robinson

Tom Pelissero revealed recently something that had been known on the local level since November. That the Bears and their star receiver hadn’t discussed a new contract for months. As far back as September. This helped to explain Robinson’s social media antics during the season. He was frustrated. Now it’s believed Chicago will be forced to franchise tag him with the added chance they use that as a precursor to trading him elsewhere.

Verdict: Buy

One has to look at this from a business point of view. The Bears have salary cap problems. Tagging Robinson would cost $18 million against the cap. This would instantly hamper their efforts to get the payroll under control and still improve the roster. They want to keep him but with the wide receiver market looking pretty strong as well as the draft? It might be better for business if they tag him and ship him to another team for a 2nd round pick. Otherwise, they would let him walk with the assurance they get a 3rd round compensatory pick in 2022.

Derek Carr is their primary veteran target at quarterback

The Las Vegas Raiders have played hokey pokey on Carr for three offseasons now. People have made it seem like head coach Jon Gruden is prepared to make a change at any moment. Then the team rolls into that season with Carr under center. Now the reports are coming out again. If the Raiders get the offer they’re looking for, they’re prepared to move on with the idea of pursuing Deshaun Watson or using Marcus Mariota as a bridge to the next guy. The Chicago Bears view the 30-year old as their ideal option if it’s at all possible.

Verdict: Buy

Everything about Carr makes sense. He’s not too old. He is coming off the best season of his career, has a skill set that fits what Nagy likes in quarterbacks, is somebody Nagy is familiar with, and most importantly has a manageable contract. Two years remain on his current deal at an average of $21 million with no guaranteed money left to pay. That is chump change for a player of Carr’s caliber. It hits all the right notes for this team at this time.

J.J. Watt will seek to join the Bears to reunite with his wife

It is quite difficult to contemplate Watt playing in anything other than a Houston Texans uniform. He literally elevated that franchise to respectability and will all but certainly be their first Hall of Famer. An absolute legend who deserved better than the ending he got. Now he’s a free agent and hoping to find a new home. One that gives him a chance to chase a ring. Many believe Chicago is on the list given the good defense they field and the fact his wife plays professional soccer in the city. It’s a natural fit.

Verdict: Sell

Is the idea of Watt on the same front as Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack drooltastic? Without a doubt. Even at his age, he can still be a force up front. This is purely a money issue. The Bears don’t have enough to bring the defensive end in. Not unless he took a significant discount. There is also the fact other teams appear closer to a championship than Chicago and have more money to spend. It just doesn’t work out economically.

Drafting a quarterback is something they’re contemplating

Up until now, the focus around the Chicago Bears quarterback search is squarely on veterans. That makes sense. A good veteran gives this team the best chance to win this year. Something Pace and Nagy need to happen. However, with two top options (Carson Wentz and Matthew Stafford) already off the board, the pool is shrinking. If Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott or Carr don’t become possibilities, the team will be left with second-tier options. This is why an undercurrent is forming that Chicago may seek to gamble on a top QB in the draft.

Verdict: Buy

On the surface, drafting a quarterback seems pointless. The odds of a rookie guiding the team to a playoff berth seems far more remote than a solid veteran. Except there is a second layer to the idea. What if the Bears take one, miss the playoffs but he ends up playing well as the starter? That could convince the McCaskeys that Nagy and Pace made the right call on the long-term health of the franchise. This way they keep their jobs anyway. It’s not a crazy tactic. People have done it before.