In a recent article by NFL Draft Analyst Chad Reuter, a trade idea involving the Chicago Bears and the New England Patriots was presented. The deal focuses on quarterback Justin Fields, with the Patriots swapping their first-round pick, with the Bears. The details of the trade compensation are laid out as follows.
“The Patriots would swap first-round selections with Chicago this year and also give up a 2024 fourth-round pick and a conditional 2025 pick in the deal, similar to the trade between the Packers and Jets for Aaron Rodgers last year.”
Breaking down the deal, here’s what it entails for both teams:
For the Bears:
They receive the No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 draft. They also get a 2024 4th round pick and a conditional pick in 2025.
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For the Patriots:
They acquire Justin Fields, and the 9th overall pick.
Would New England even consider this deal?
Looking at the deal, it appears heavily skewed in favor of the Bears. They would have the first and third overall picks in the 2024 draft, giving them the opportunity to select their preferred quarterback (likely USC’s Caleb Williams) and potentially pair him with star wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. from Ohio State. However, it’s worth noting that such a return for Justin Fields might seem unlikely. There’s also uncertainty surrounding whether the Bears will indeed move on from Fields, as reports suggest they might draft a quarterback, but the final decision lies with general manager Ryan Poles. Nevertheless, if this trade were to materialize, it promises an exciting future of Caleb Williams throwing passes to DJ Moore and Marvin Harrison Jr.
No draft value charts need to be strictly followed because: if a team(s) really covet(s) either Williams or Fields as QBs for whatever reason(s), then they are trading actually for these specific individuals not the draft positions on any chart. So, if you really want to get the player, just pay the “necessary,” not the so-called “fair,” price. They are billionaire teams/owners and can afford to do just about anything.
If you want both Williams and Harrison, then just simplify the trade: CHI Fields and #9 for NE #3.
The Rich Hill draft value chart is based on historical draft trades with some mathematical smoothing; the #1 overall pick is 1000 points. So, using the Rich Hill draft value chart, trading up from #9 (387) to #3 (514) should cost 127 points. Pick #46, a mid second round pick, is worth 128 points. So if one values Fields as a middle of the second round pick, this would be a fair trade. Frankly, I’m a bit surprised by this result. I initially thought this was a crazy stupid trade, far too favorable for the Bears, but the move from… Read more »
Let’s play along and say NE makes the trade. Are we really certain that the Bears take CW? My guess is right now he’s a 50/50 proposition.
Not realistic.
It’s pipe dream logic.
Let’s move on…
Next!
(Dave got this wild idea from Sports Illustrated, I believe.)