Since the NFL moved to 32 teams in 2002 and the playoff spots were picks 21 to 32, a total of 11 quarterbacks have been taken in that span. Why so few? Part of the reason is the teams picking aren’t immediately pressed for QB help. They did just make the playoffs after all. However, it also comes down to historical success. Only two of those selected over that time span have become Pro Bowlers. One being Aaron Rodgers (2005) and the other Teddy Bridgewater (2014).
Are teams really prepared to spend their most valuable draft pick on what could be the third or fourth quarterback available in a draft class? Only if the need is considerable. At present the only team that sticks out in this regard are the Houston Texans at #25. That could change if they end up landing Tony Romo as many expect. Kansas City? A definite threat but Alex Smith is still an effective starter. The team has problems worth noting elsewhere on the roster.
Then there is something else. The top of the second round has actually proven quite fruitful for landing a starting quarterback. Over the same time span referenced above, a total of four QBs have gone within the first five picks of day two. Three of them were Derek Carr, Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick. Two Pro Bowlers and a guy who got his team to a Super Bowl. That’s not bad.
Carr and Kaepernick were actually chosen with the #36 pick. The same exact one the Bears now possess. That’s always a welcome sign. Then there is also the growing belief from several experts that some top options of the 2017 QB class likely will slip into the second round due to other players rising late and the typical fear of drafting a player who likely isn’t ready to play immediately.
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Todd McShay says Pat Mahomes is a combo Johnny Manziel/Brett Fave. Said he could slip into 1st round, but more likely a 2nd-day pick.
— Suzanne Halliburton (@suzhalliburton) March 15, 2017
I elaborated why DeShone Kizer may fall (like Hackenberg in '16). #Texans/ #Giants would be two great fits in 2nd: https://t.co/7MIjL72rPR https://t.co/f8ulxPs7Qr
— Eric Galko (@OptimumScouting) March 13, 2017
On conference call, @MikeMayock says he has similar grade on UNC QB Mitch Trubisky as he had on Jimmy Garoppolo in 2014. 2nd-round grade.
— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) February 27, 2017
Several signs still persist that GM Ryan Pace has every intention of adding a quarterback in the draft. There are only two on the current roster in Glennon and Connor Shaw. Glennon is only under contract for three years and his guaranteed money will be mostly gone by 2018. Then there’s the simple reality he hasn’t drafted one yet in his time running the Bears. It seems a little past due.
Last but not least there is the presence of head coach John Fox. In his entire career no team he’s run has ever taken a quarterback in the first round. Not once. However, they have taken one in the second round twice. Admittedly this history isn’t on his side since those two players were Jimmy Clausen and Brock Osweiler.
Nonetheless every indicator is there that Chicago will draft a quarterback early and that the second round may be their sweet spot.
