Everybody knows the situation by now. Justin Fields came into 2023 with a clear message from Ryan Poles. The Chicago Bears GM willingly passed on drafting a quarterback #1 overall because he believed Fields deserved a chance to keep growing after an encouraging 2022 season. Poles provided more help this year, acquiring D.J. Moore via trade and fortifying his protection with 1st round pick Darnell Wright. Expectations were high. Have they been met? Some say yes. Others say no.
Team insider Adam Jahns of The Athletic addressed this in his latest column. From what he’s gathered, the decision for Poles might not be as complicated as it is for fans. People forget the Bears GM gave himself an insurance policy when he secured an extra 1st round pick in 2024. He knew there was a possibility this gamble on Fields may not work. He wanted to have the ammunition necessary to pursue a QB next year. The fact that pick may turn into #1 overall is a happy accident.
All the signs point to a change being made.
You could tell yourself that the glimpses of stardom that Fields has provided have been enough, that he would improve if his supporting cast does and that he’s better than any rookie quarterback would be for an improving team.
The money-ball reality, though, is that Fields’ current level of production, particularly as a passer, shouldn’t be that difficult to replace, and that the team adds a quarterback on a rookie contract.
The next step for Poles and the Bears can simply be taking Williams (or Maye) with the Panthers’ pick and then the best player on their draft board with their own pick, which should still be in the top 10. Or they could trade that second first-rounder for more draft capital.
Having that first pick changes conversations. There is no doubt about that. But Poles was prepared for them. Let’s not forget that. He built himself this situation to pivot from Fields if he considered it the best move for his team. His decision comes next.
Justin Fields can’t hide from the numbers.
His 195 yards passing per game this year is a career-high. It also ranks him 23rd in the NFL among starting quarterbacks. His 84.1 passer rating is 21st. Kirk Cousins, who started three fewer games, still has more touchdown passes at 18 to 15. People will, of course, point out his contributions as a runner. The Total Quarterback Rating created by ESPN accounts for this. His 44.7 mark is 22nd in the league. Suffice it to say, nothing suggests Fields is having a good year. He’s on track to finish with 2,536 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Even with his rushing totals, he barely clears 3,000 total yards with 20 touchdowns. That doesn’t even account for his nine fumbles.
Jahns is correct. From Poles’ perspective, replacing those passing numbers with a different quarterback shouldn’t be overly difficult. Yes, they likely lose the special athlete Justin Fields is but that hasn’t made him nearly the difference-maker people want to believe. Great quarterbacks aren’t defined by their athleticism. It’s always been about whether they can surgically cut up a defense through the air when there isn’t much time on the clock. Fields has shown too many times he can’t do it. That is why his time in Chicago may almost be up.
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