Not every decision ever goes perfectly for a team. Some things end up working out while others don’t. The Chicago Bears have a number of things they’d probably like to do over from the past several months. Signing Robert Quinn for $70 million? Yep. Trading for Nick Foles? Probably. However, sometimes the misfortune isn’t so much about bad decisions but bad luck. As the Bears prepare for the toughest task of their season on Sunday, there is one missed opportunity they might be regretting.
It actually took place last year. Vic Fangio had accepted the head coaching job with the Denver Broncos. Fans couldn’t blame him. It was a chance he’d waited a long time for. Still, they were sorry to see him go. Head coach Matt Nagy had the difficult task of finding a replacement. In the end, he went with Chuck Pagano. It made sense at the time. The man was widely experienced and ran a similar system to the one the Bears used.
What many forget is he actually wasn’t Nagy’s first choice.
He was hoping to hire an old friend instead. Somebody he’d grown up with years ago. That was Todd Bowles. The former New York Jets head coach had been fired last year and was considered one of the top defensive coordinator candidates available. Nagy’s father was Bowles’ defensive line coach in high school. So the two knew each other quite well.
Unfortunately, Bruce Arians had just been hired by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He had previously worked with Bowles in Arizona. That connection proved the difference as Bowles went south to Florida. The Bears quickly zeroed in on Pagano after that. While nobody can say the hire was bad, time is proving the team may have been able to do better. According to Jeff Hughes of Da Bears Blog, the coordinator isn’t the most highly-respected around the league.
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When I asked the individual referred to around here as [REDACTED] what he thought of Pagano’s schemes, he gave me a one word response: “Predictable”.
Chicago Bears may wish they had Bowles for this Sunday
Why? If there’s one thing that has become apparent, the defensive coordinator understands how to make Green Bay Packers legend Aaron Rodgers uncomfortable. Their first encounter came in 2018. Bowles’ Jets were playing out the end of a bad season. Rodgers ended up with over 400 yards passing and two touchdowns. However, it didn’t come without consequences as the Jets managed to sack him four times.
Two years later, Bowles got a second chance. This time with a much more talented Buccaneers unit. The results were shocking. Tampa Bay held Rodgers under 50% on his completions, intercepted him twice, and sacked him four times in a 38-10 rout. It was by far the worst game the MVP-favorite has played this season. That makes it hard not to wonder how different the Bears defense might look with him in charge.
Pagano seems to have failed at getting the most from his talent.
Since the beginning of last season, the Chicago Bears defense has 66 sacks and 20 interceptions. In that same time span, the Buccaneers have 94 sacks and 27 interceptions. A lot of that thanks to Bowles’ ability to generate pressure with aggressive and crafty blitzing. His team has the 5th-highest blitz percentage in the league at 38.4%. By contrast, Pagano’s defense is the 4th-lowest at 21.5%.
Given how badly Rodgers shredded this defense last time, it’s hard to trust he’ll do anything different in the rematch. How different might things be if the Bears had gotten Bowles last year?
