Mitch Trubisky has his doubters. Most of the national media at places like ESPN and NFL.com refuse to buy in on him. Bill Barnwell. Greg Rosenthal. Michael Lombardi. They all claim he’s fools gold and should be benched because he’ll never be good enough. Why? They all list the same reason. He can’t complete easy passes down the field. He’s missing way too many wide open guys.
On the surface, this is true. Trubisky has had a number of instances where he had a guy open and missed him. Most of the time it was due to an overthrow. Is this simple inaccuracy? No. There have been too many times this year where Trubisky has thrown some pinpoint passes for it to be a simple lack of accuracy.
A big part of the problem is mechanics. He still hasn’t learned to play with precise footwork and body fundamentals. Big keys when running a West Coast-style system that Matt Nagy employs. However, there may be one other issue in play. Something Trubisky has no control over that continues to be ignored.
Have people stopped to consider that maybe his targets are harder to hit because they’re smaller?
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Top Mitch Trubisky targets are significantly shorter on average than others
One of the most underappreciated aspects of QBs having great completion percentages is the overall size of their receiving corps. It’s basic math. Bigger targets are easier to hit. I decided to see what the average height was for the top five completion percentage quarterbacks in the league and then measured them against Trubisky. The results were astounding.
The average height for QB receiving corps (top 4 targets):
- Drew Brees – 6’1.5”
- Derek Carr – 6’1.25”
- Kirk Cousins – 6’2.5”
- Matt Ryan – 6’2.5”
- Carson Wentz – 6’2.75”
The typical average height for a receiver in the NFL hovers between 6’1 and 6’2. So people might be stunned to hear that the average height of Trubisky’s group is 5’11. That’s a full 2.5 inches shorter than the lowest mark on the list above. That isn’t even the extent of it. With Allen Robinson sidelined the past two weeks, Anthony Miller stepped into his role. That dropped the mark even further to 5’9.75″.
Put it this way. John Elway had a group of similar size in the late 1980s. His completion percentage was never higher than 55.6. So for Trubisky, who is just eight games into a new system to have a 64.1 completion rate is pretty solid. Jay Cutler had guys like Brandon Marshall (6’4), Alshon Jeffery (6’3), Martellus Bennett (6’6), and Matt Forte (6’2) in 2013 and 2014. His was a 64.55.
So maybe it’s time to cut Trubisky some slack. They say football is a game of inches and it’s true. It is possible that he might be completing a significantly higher number of his throws if players like Tarik Cohen and Taylor Gabriel were 6’0 and 6’2 instead of 5’6 and 5’8. Hitting targets that small at NFL speeds isn’t easy.
