It’s no secret the Chicago Bears offense in 2017 was atrocious outside of the running game, and even that had its problems. Head coach John Fox, if he ever looks back at the one mistake that likely cost him his job, it was not replacing Dowell Loggains as offensive coordinator. It became clear as the weeks went on that the man was overmatched by his responsibilities.
The Bears often lacked creativity and didn’t adjust to the strengths of his players nearly enough to have success. The talent was a problem to a degree, but in those situations, a coordinator must adapt to what he has. Loggains did not do this. Instead he simplified things, became predictable and thus the Bears became easy for even modest defenses to stop.
Now Matt Nagy is in charge and things are going to change. I became curious about what could be different this year. Not so much from a schematic standpoint but more from a mode of operation and execution standpoint. Graham Barfield of Fantasy Guru posted a fascinating collection of stats from last season.
On it was three categories that caught my eye regarding the Nagy offense in Kansas City and how it my change what the Bears do in 2018.
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I think most NFL data should be free. So, I made a compiled sheet of 2017 team data from open sources (per drive statistics, volume stats, OL/defensive data, and more). You can view play call tendencies over the last two seasons on the second tab.
Enjoy: https://t.co/48lL6snlQN
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) July 5, 2018
Pass-Run ratio percentage: 58.7% to 41.3%
This paints a clear picture of where Nagy will likely focus the offense. He intends to be a pass-first team, gearing things around Trubisky. That shouldn’t be a surprise. He’s a former quarterback himself and sees the game through that position. At the same time, he still showed deference to the run game as 13 other teams had a lower percentage of run plays than the Chiefs did last year. So why he may run it less than the Bears did last year, Jordan Howard will still see plenty of action.
Passing yards per attempt: 7.56 yards
This was the second-highest number on the list. In other words, Nagy’s aim is clear. He’s going to attack defenses down the field. The vertical play was a huge part of the Chief’s success last season with Alex Smith throwing for more yards than any other season in his career. Having the pieces like Tyreek Hill certainly helped.
This explains the addition of Taylor Gabriel, Anthony Miller, and Allen Robinson. All have that ability to create separation down the field. Considering Trubisky averaged just 5.94 yards per attempt, this will be a serious change.
Rushing yards before contact: 1.75 yards
This stat is interesting as it reflects the ability of an offensive line to generate space for the running back at the line of scrimmage. The higher the number is, the longer it takes for the defense to get a hand on him. In the case of the Chiefs, they were again the second-best team in the NFL at this. There’s a big reason why Kareem Hunt was the rushing champion. He often got to the second level of a defense before getting touched.
Credit for this must be given to excellent blocking by the offensive line along with great scheming by Nagy. The Bears should end up having both with the arrival of line coach Harry Hiestand. So try to imagine what Howard might do with that kind of space to work with. Not to mention Tarik Cohen.
