The Chicago Bears made the bold decision this offseason to part ways with former head coach John Fox and almost the entire offensive staff. Their goal was simple: hire a head coach who could (hopefully) build a real offense around Mitch Trubisky. The kind of system that could maximize his natural talents as a passer.
Eventually, the man they settled on was Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy. The man had strong credentials. He enjoyed a productive playing career in college and the Arena Football League before becoming an assistant for the Philadelphia Eagles in 2008. He followed Andy Reid to K.C. where he became quarterbacks coach and helped veteran Alex Smith to become a four-time Pro Bowler.
His system featured variations on both the West Coast offense and the college spread, both of which are known to be quarterback-friendly. Trubisky ran a ton of shotgun-spread in college so it’s a style he knows well. It seemed like a natural pairing from the start. Still, despite all the projections, fans want to know two things.
Will this change work and how long will it take?
Subscribe to the BFR Youtube channel and ride shotgun with Dave and Ficky as they break down Bears football like nobody else.
Recent history bodes very well for Mitch Trubisky
The best way to find out whether changing offenses so quickly can be beneficial to young quarterbacks is by seeing how it affected others who experienced a similar situation. A young QB, perhaps entering his second or third year who saw the offensive coordinator and/or head coach replaced. There’s been a surprising number of examples in the past few years.
How did the transition go for them? Here are the results.
Jared Goff (2nd year)
- 2016 under Rob Boras: 112-of-205, 1,089 yards, 5 TDs, 7 INTs
- 2017 under Sean McVay: 296-of-477, 3,804 yards, 28 TDs, 7 INTs
Marcus Mariota (2nd year)
- 2015 under Jason Michael: 230-of-370, 2,818 yards, 19 TDs, 10 INTs
- 2016 under Terry Robiskie: 276-of-451, 3,426 yards, 26 TDs, 9 INTs
Blake Bortles (2nd year)
- 2014 under Jedd Fisch: 280-of-475, 2,908 yards, 11 TDs, 17 INTs
- 2015 under Greg Olson: 355-of-606, 4,428 yards, 35 TDs, 18 INTs
Ryan Tannehill (3rd year)
- 2013 under Mike Sherman: 355-of-588, 3,913 yards, 24 TDs, 17 INTs
- 2014 under Bill Lazor: 392-of-590, 4,045 yards, 27 TDs, 12 INTs
Cam Newton (3rd year)
- 2012 under Rob Chudzinski: 280-of-485, 3,869 yards, 19 TDs, 12 INTs
- 2013 under Mike Shula: 292-of-473, 3,379 yards, 24 TDs, 13 INTs
It’s rather consistent, which can be rare in these situations. Each quarterback saw an increase both in production or efficiency (or both) when moving to the new offense. On average their yards and touchdowns increase while their interceptions decreased or remained almost the same. Adding further credence to it is the fact that every name listed was a top 10 draft pick.
It doesn’t guarantee anything. Nothing is in the NFL. Still, the indicators are there that Trubisky should see a significant spike in productivity if he stays on the field and sees improvement in the scheme as those other quarterbacks did. Should fans expect a Pro Bowl? Of course not. Improvement should be the first order of business. More TDs. Fewer interceptions. Higher completion percentage.
Above all? More wins. If Trubisky improves that stat alone, Bears fans won’t care what the rest look like. Such is the reality of sports.
